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2016-09-08 Work SessionPage 4-51 Kodiak Island Borough Assembly Work Session Thursday, September 8, 2016, 6:30 p.m. Borouqh Conference Room Work Sessions are informal meetings of the Assembly where Assembly members review the upcoming regular meeting agenda packet and seek or receive information from staff. Although additional items not listed on the work session agenda are discussed when introduced by the Mayor, Assembly, or staff, no formal action is taken at work sessions and items that require formal Assembly action are placed on regular Assembly meeting agenda. Citizen's comments at work sessions are NOT considered part of the official record. Citizen's comments intended for the "official record" should be made at a regular Assembly meeting. CITIZENS' COMMENTS (Limited to Three Minutes per Speaker) AGENDA ITEMS a. Building Code Discussion with Alaska Housing Finance Corporation b. Update regarding public and private timber salvage and slash pile management Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion SK Grant abrev ao info A Resolution of Support for Fisheries State of Emergency and Loan Deferment 3. PACKET REVIEW PUBLIC HEARING Ordinances Amending the 2008 Comprehensive Plan By Changing The Future Land Use Designation Of The Following Borough Owned Lands From Public Ownership/Facilities To Residential Or Rural Residential: • Ordinance No. FY2017-05, Lot 7A, Block 2, Monashka Bay Subdivision From Public Ownership/Facilities To Rural Residential (P&Z Case No. 16-024). • Ordinance No. FY2017-07, Lot 5, From Public Ownership/Facilities Tc 16-033). Block 5, Monashka Bay Subdivision Rural Residential (P&Z Case No. • Ordinance No. FY2017-09, A ± 20,000 Square Foot Portion Of U.S. Survey 3099 From Public Ownership/Facilities To Urban Residential (P&Z Case No. 16-036). Visit our website at www.facebook.com/Kodiakislandborough © @KodiakBorough www.kodiakak.us Page 1 of 51 • Ordinance No. FY2017-13, A± 1 Acre Portion of Lot 1A-4, U.S. Survey 3465 From Public Ownership/Facilities To Urban Residential (P&Z Case No. 16-030). Ordinances Rezoning The Following Borough Owned Lands From PL - Public Use Lands District to R1 -Single -Family Residential District, R2 - Two -Family Residential District, Or RR1-Rural Residential One District: -Ordinance No. FY2017-06, Lot 7A, Block 2, Monashka Bay Subdivision From PL -Public Use Lands District To RR1-Rural Residential One District (P&Z Case No. 16-025). -Ordinance No. FY2017-08, Lot 5, Block 5, Monashka Bay Subdivision From PL -Public Use Lands District To RR1-Rural Residential One District (P&Z Case No. 16-034). -Ordinance No. FY2017-10, Rezoning A ± 20,000 Square Foot Portion Of Lot 29, U.S. Survey 3099 From PL -Public Use Lands District To R2 - Two -Family Residential District (P&Z Case No. 16-037). -Ordinance No. FY2017-14, A± 1 Acre Portion of Lot 1A-4, U.S. Survey 3465 From PL -Public Use Lands District To R2 -Two-family Residential District (P&Z Case No. 16-031). UNFINISHED BUSINESS Contract No. FY2016-45A Amending Contract No. FY2016-45 Twin Creeks Fire Salvage Timber Sale Contract, Between A-1 Timber Consultants, Inc. And The Kodiak Island Borough, To Provide An Exception To Section 11 Timber Operations, Subsection "C, Slash Operations. NEW BUSINESS RESOLUTIONS Resolution No. FY2017-10 Authorizing The Borough To Issue A General Obligation School Refunding Bond To Refund Certain Principal Installments Of An Outstanding General Obligation School Bond Of The Borough And To Pay Costs Of Issuing The Bond, Fixing Certain Details Of Such Bond, Authorizing Its Sale, And Providing For Related Matters. Resolution No. FY2017-12 Approving Fiscal Year 2017 Kodiak Island Borough Non -Profit Funding. Resolution No. FY2017-14 Appointing Members to the Kodiak Fisheries Development Association Board of Directors (Stosh Anderson). Resolution No. FY2017-15 Support For Fisheries State Of Emergency And Loan Deferment. ORDINANCES FOR INTRODUCTION Ordinance No. FY2017-17 Placing A Temporary Moratorium On The Enforcement Of Those Sections Of Title 17 (Zoning) Of The Borough Code That Prohibit The Keeping Of Chickens And Other Animals Useful To People In The Rr-Rural Residential, R1 -Single -Family Residential, R2 -Two -Family Residential, And R3 -Multi -Family Residential Zoning Visit our website at ww,� facebook.com/Kodiakislandborough © @KodiakBorough www.kodiakak.us Page 2 of 51 Districts, And Initiating A Planning And Zoning Commission Review Of Title 17 (Zoning) Of The Borough Code To Consider Amendments That Will Allow Such Uses In Those Districts, And Directing Staff To Perform A Concurrent Review Of Chapter 6.04 (Animal Control) Of The Borough Code To Recommend Amendments That More Specifically Address The Control Of Chickens And Other Animals Useful To People. EXECUTIVE SESSION Matters Involving Negotiations With The IBEW Borough Manager's Evaluation 4. MANAGER'S COMMENTS 5. CLERK'S COMMENTS 6. MAYOR'S COMMENTS 7. ASSEMBLY MEMBERS COMMENTS 8. FUTURE DISCUSSION ITEMS Visit our website at www facebook.com/Kodiakislandborouoh © @KodiakBorough www.kodiakak.us Page 3 of 51 Date: November 3, 2015 To: Kodiak Fisheries Workgroup AGENDA ITEM #2.c. Kodiak Island Borough M"AGER's OHce Bud Cassidy, Borough Manager FL qJ41N U9]ftVArk9FaJFJ ►j From: Meagan Christiansen, Special Projects Support Re: Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant The Saltonstall-Kennedy (S -K) Grant is a competitive funding opportunity through the National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce. The objective of the S -K Grant Program is to address the needs of the fisheries and fishing communities In optimizing economic benefits by building and maintaining sustainable fisheries and practices, dealing with the Impacts of conservation and management measures, and Increasing other opportunities to use existing Infrastructure to support keeping working waterfronts viable. The grant may fund projects from approximately $50,000-$250,000 to be completed within a two year time period. Matching funds or a local contribution is not required. The Kodiak Island Borough submitted an application on behalf of the joint Kodiak Fisheries Workgroup under the grant program's priority of Socio -Economic Research, proposing a project titled "Modeling Kodiak Area Socioeconomic Impacts of Potential and Proposed Fishery Management Actions." Staff from McDowell Group assisted with the application, providing details of the project that will Include the following: • Detailed research and analysts of commercial fishing and seafood processing -related operating practices and spending patterns In Kodiak (supplementing the research currently underway); • Evaluation of previous modeling efforts aimed at measuring the local -level economic Impact of commercial fishing and seafood processing in Alaska and the nation, and Identifying the type of model most suitable for purposes of this project; • Construction of the model framework and model calibration; and. • Development of narrative description (report) of model architecture, data sources, model assumptions, and results of Initial analysis of potential management measures. This project has been discussed at workgroup meetings and has been referred to as Phase II of the economic analysis work as described In the Request for Proposals for Economic Analysis Consulting Services advertised by the Kodiak Island Borough on behalf of the Kodiak Fisheries Workgroup. Requested funding Is in the amount of $192,900. NOAA has confirmed receipt of the grant application; funding notification is expected in May, 2016; and funds would be available September 1, 2016 Page 4 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion Application Proposal Number: 16AKR017 Applicant: Kodiak Island Borough Projcet'ritle: Kodiak Area Socioeconomic Impact Modeling Project Period: 09/01/2016-08131/2017 Total Amount Proposed: $192,900.00 Federal Amount Requested: $192,900.00 Fiscal Year of Federal Funding Requested: 2016 Principal Investigators / Project Directors: Jim Calvin Reviewer 38 Scoring Summary Total Score: 81 Scoring Details AGENDA ITEM #2.c. Score Range Criterion 25 0-30 Importance/Relevance and Applicability of Proposal to the Program Goals 26 0-35 Technical/Scientific Merit 9 0-10 Overall Qualification of Applicant 11 0-15 Project Costs 10 0-10 Outr ach and Education Review Criteria Importance/Relevance and Applicability of Proposal to the Program Goals Importance/relevance and applicability of proposed projects to the program goals (30 points). Ibis criterion ascertains whether there is intrinsic value in the proposed work and/or relevance to NOAA, Federal, regional, state, or local activities. Docs the proposal describe its relevance to a SK Program Priority in Section B, and how information gathered will contribute to NOAA mission to enhance the understanding of the fishery resource and contribute to the body of information on which management decisions are made? Docs this study address an important problem, providing a clear definition of the problem, need, issue or research need to be addressed? Can the research question be answered using existing data? If not, is this the best method to obtain the data? Where applicable, is the participation of U.S. fishermen meaningfully incorporated into the project design? Will the project(s) yield environmentally compatible socio-economic benefits, such as increased business opportunities, recreational opportunities, or decreased safety hazards? The appropriateness of the data sharing plan: Lias the proposal included a Data Information Sharing Plan including description of the types of environmental data and information created during the course of the project; the tentative date by which data will be shared; the standards to be used for data/metadata format and content; policies addressing data stewardship and preservation; procedures for providing access, sharing and security; and prior experience in publishing such. Page 5 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. Comments (Required): The proposal clearly describes its relevance to SK Program Priority 45: improving understanding of the socioeconomic aspects of fisheries to increase information on current and future consequences of management choices for use by decision makers and stakeholders. The proposal provides a clear description of the community of Kodiak and its dependence on fisheries. The initial description of Kodiak focuses specifically on Kodiak's participation in groundtish fisheries, but the project objectives and data sources are described much more broadly, such as l) provide Kodiak with a detailed understanding of the seafood industry's role in the local economy, including the role of individual fisheries and species, and 2) build a dynamic model to give the community a robust tool for gauging the community level economic impacts of fisheries management measures, and preparing for and mitigating those impacts. I assume this project is intended to provide comprehensive data and model results for Kodiak's participation in all state and fiedcral fisheries, with the intent of using the project data outputs to inform upcoming fishery management policy decisions for the Gulf of Alaska groundfish fisheries, but potentially management policy decisions for other fisheries in which Kodiak is involved. The problem/need is clearly defined and well understood in fisheries management: the impacts of fisheries management policies on fishery -dependent communities are difficult to predict with available information. The researchers propose to use existing and new data sources to The new data collection methods will necessarily require participation by U.S. commercial fishermen, as well as processors and support businesses that depend on commercial fisheries in Kodiak. The Data Information Sharing Plan includes a general description of the primary and secondary sources of data that will be used as input, as well as the data output. For the new data sources that will be used for this project, the proposal does not include specific descriptions of the standards to be used for data/metadata format and content; policies addressing data stewardship and preservation; procedures for providing access, sharing and security. Technical/Scientific Merit Technical and/or scientific melt (35 points). This criterion assesses whether the approach is technically sound and/or innovative, if the methods are appropriate, and whether there aro clear project goals and objectives. Page 6 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. Proposals should provide a clear definition of the approach to be used, including descriptions of field work, theoretical studies, and laboratory analysis to support the proposed research. Are the conceptual framework, design, methods, and analyses adequately developed, well -integrated, and appropriate to the aims of the project? Are the objectives in the proposal clearly defined and focused, realistic and can be reached within the proposed project period? Does the applicant acknowledge potential problem areas and consider ways to resolve the issues or implement alternative tactics? Does the project challenge existing paradigms or develop now methodologies or technologies? Is sufficient detail provided in the proposal about the methods proposed for monitoring and evaluating the success of the project, and are they appropriate? Does the project demonstrate support, cooperation and/or collaboration with the fishing industry? Is there sufficient description of the project's environmental impact? }lave permits been applied for or acquired? Comments (Required): The proposal provides a clear definition of the approach to be used, including the primary and secondary data sources that will be used to clarify the spending, employment, and income connections between commercial fishing, seafood processing, and the scrvice/supply sector in Kodiak. The use of existing and new data sources is well described and is appropriate for the project. The applicant clearly describes the shortcoming of existing data sources and justifies the need for now data collection methods to address these shortcomings, particularly for the data compilation aspect of the project. I think the proposal provides a good description of the data that will be compiled and presented for Kodiak at a minimum, in addition to the modeling efforts, for which a specific outcome is difficult to predict. For the modeling aspect of the project, the proposal describes existing paradigms in economic impacts analysis, and proposes to determine the project model approach following an analysis of past fisheries economic impact modeling projects. The proposal states that the modeling approach may involve modification/customization of existing economic impacts models or development of an original model if sufficient data can be developed to fully define linkages between sectors of the Kodiak economy. My understanding is that even existing economic impacts models can be complex and time- consuming to adapt to specific fisheries economies in Alaska, and the schedule presented in the proposal may not be sufficient for the applicants to process the necessary data and develop an original model. I would have liked to see a bit more description about the factors that will be used to determine which model approach will be used. The proposal describes the methods for cooperation and coordination with the fishing industry in Kodiak, and supplemental information was provided to demonstrate support Page 7 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2. c. of the project by stakeholders. Overall Qualification of Applicant Overall qualifications of the applicants (10 points). 'Phis criterion assesses whether the applicant, and team members, possess the necessary education, experience, training, facilities, and administrative resources to accomplish the project. Does the applicant have the capacity/knowledge to conduct the scope and scale of the proposed work, as indicated by the qualifications and past experience of the project leaders and/or partners that show adequate administrative capability and experience in successfully completing similar projects? Are the institutional support, equipment and other physical resources available to the investigators adequate for the proposed project? Does the proposal include resumes of the. Principal Investigator(s)? In cases where subcontracts arc proposed for carrying out specific tasks, are the quality/appropriateness of the personnel, facilities and procedures (laboratory methods, work plan and or quality oversight procedures) adequate? Comments (Required): The applicants and collaborators have significant knowledge and experience relevant to the project proposal. The PI and several of the collaborators have produced work products similar to the proposed project and clearly have the administrative capability, institutional support, and experience to successfully complete the proposed project. The proposal includes brief resumes of the PI and project collaborators that describe specific knowledge and experience relevant to the proposed project. Project Costs Project costs (15 points).This criterion evaluates the budget to determine if it is realistic and commensurate with the project needs and time frame. Cost effectiveness of the project is considered. Is the proposed budget cost-effective and realistic based on the applicant's stated objectives, time frame, and amount of overall project budget already secured from other sources? Is the proposed budget sufficiently detailed, with appropriate budget breakdown and justification of costs by object class? Comments (Required): The proposal included a general budget overview of the project, with the total hours and costs of each project member presented. Very brief descriptions are provided as to the general contributions of collaborators, but a specific budget breakdown and justification of costs by object class is not provided. Without this detail, it is difficult to determine if the budget is realistic and commensurate with the project needs and time frame. As mentioned in another evaluation criterion, I feel the proposed time frame may not allow Page 8 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. for develupment of an original dynamic economic impacts model given the need for new data collection and processing and complexity of model development. The proposal does include a description of finds already secured from other sources. Outreach and Education Outreach and education (10 points). Phis criterion assesses whether the project provides a focused and effective education and outreach strategy regarding NOAA's mission to protect the Nation's natural resources. Does the proposal identify anticipated benefits, potential users, indicators of success, and methods of disseminating results? Is an effective method proposed for dissemination of project results? Are the various target audiences, such as the fishing community or the general public, identified? Will the outreach methods acknowledge NOAH Fisheries support of the project? Comments (Required): The proposal clearly describes that this project is consistent with NOAA's mission by identifying anticipated benefits, potential users, indicators of success, and methods of disseminating results. The outreach plan for disseminating results on the Kodiak Island Borough web site is appropriate given its support of and involvement in the project. The applicants also intend to develop a detailed manual describing model mechanics and operations. Results will also be, distributed to other interested stakeholders, researchers, and the public by being presented at various fisheries forums. The proposal also describes involvement in the project by local fisheries -related organizations in Kodiak in an advisory/support role. This demonstrates a clear project focus on providing data outputs to a specific target audience (i.e., the Kodiak fishing industry) while also providing a potential framework for economic impacts analysis in other regions or Alaska or even statewide. Reviewer 26 Scoring Summary Total Score: 55 Scoring Details Score Range Criterion 15 0-30 Importance/Relevance and Applicability of Proposal to the Program Goals 20 0-35 Technical/Scientific Merit 8 0-10 Overall Qualification of Applicant 8 0-15 Project Costs 4 0-10 Outreach and Education Page 9 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. 12eview Criteria Importance/Relevance and Applicability of Proposal to the Program Goals Importance/relevance and applicability of proposed projects to the program goals (30 points). This criterion ascertains whether there is intrinsic value in the proposed work and/or relevance to NOAH, Federal, regional, state, or local activities. Does the proposal describe its relevance to a SK Program Priority in Section R, and how information gathered will contribute to NOAA mission to enhance the understanding of the fishery resource and contribute to the body of information on which management decisions are made? Does this study address an important problem, providing a clear definition of the problem, need, issue or research need to be addressed? Can the research question be answered using existing data? If not, is this Utc best method to obtain die data? Where applicable, is the participation of U.S. fishermen meaningfully incorporated into the project design? Will the project(s) yield environmentally compatible socio-economic benefits, such as increased business opportunities, recreational opportunities, or decreased safety hazards? The appropriateness of the data sharing plan: blas the proposal included a Data Information Sharing Plan including description of the types of environmental data and information created during the course ofthe project; the tentative date by which data will be shared; the standards to be used for data/metadata format and content; policies addressing data stewardship and preservation; procedures for providing access, sharing and security; and prior experience in publishing such. Comments (Required): The proposal describes its relevance to SK Program Priority #6 Socio -Economic Research and will provide information to enhance the understanding of the impacts of management decisions on a single borough in Alaska. This study addresses an important problem for the residents of Kodiak Island Borough, but the specific problem and outcomes are not well defined. The research question can, for the most part, be answered using existing data, or data that are already being collected. The Alaska Fisheries Science Center (AFSC) is already in the process of collecting borough level information to build a borough level model of the regional economic impacts of fisheries management policy changes for the Kodiak Island Borough as well as 5 other boroughs in southwest Alaska (see: https://federairegister.gov/a/2015-22708). While not all, much of the data requested from State and Federal agencies are already provided in various formats online and could be constructed from those sources (see: http://www.afsc.noaa.gov/Quarterly/AMJ2015/divrptsREFM5.htin). Additionally, the data sharing plan is completely insufficient. Environmental data includes socio-economic data (see: https://nosc.noaa.gov/EDMC/documents/LDMC-PD-DSP.pdo, and there would be substantial amounts of important socio-economic information generated through the interviewing efforts proposed and these data should be made available to the public. TechnicaUScienfific Merit Page 10 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. 7 echnical and/or scientific merit (35 points). This criterion assesses whether the approach is technically sound and/or innovative, if the methods arc appropriate, and whether them aro clear project goals and objectives. Proposals should provide a clear definition of the approach to be used, including descriptions of field work, theoretical studies, and laboratory analysis to support the proposed research. Are the conceptual framework, design, methods, and analyses adequately developed, well -integrated, and appropriate to the aims of the project? Arc the objectives in the proposal clearly defined and focused, realistic and can be reached within the proposed project period? Does the applicant acknowledge potential problem areas and consider ways to resolve the issues or implement alternative tactics? Does the project challenge existing paradigms or develop new methodologies or technologies? Is sufficient detail provided in the proposal about the methods proposed for monitoring and evaluating the success of the project, and are they appropriate? Does the project demonstrate support, cooperation and/or collaboration with the fishing industry? Is there sufficient description of the project's environmental impact? Have permits been applied for or acquired? Comments (Required): The proposal provides no clear definition of the approach to be used as the "scope and scale of this task will evolve as the preferred model type is defined" (page 10). Building smaller scale borough level analyses can be much more complicated (and data limited) than the state-wide or multi -state 10 or CCG models that are referenced in the proposal. 'these potential complications are not mentioned in the proposal and may lead to substantial issues in the development of the model. The only goal or objective of the model is to provide Kodiak island Borough with a model, but it is unclear how success will be defined or monitored throughout the course of the project. There are a number of organizations that have demonstrated support for the project, and their involvement will be critical in successful model building. Overall Qualification of Applicant Overall qualifications ofthe applicants (10 points). This criterion assesses whether the applicant, and team members, possess the necessary education, experience, training, facilities, and administrative resources to accomplish the project. Does the applicant have the capacity/knowledge to conduct the scope and scale of the proposed work, as indicated by the qualifications and past experience of the project leaders and/or partners that show adequate administrative capability and experience in successfully completing similar projects? Are the institutional support, equipment and other physical resources available to the investigators adequate for the proposed project? Does the proposal include resumes of the. Principal Investigator(s)? In cases where subcontracts are proposed for carrying out specific tasks, am the quality/appropriateness of the personnel, facilities and procedures (laboratory methods, work plan and or quality oversight procedures) adequate? Page 11 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. Comments (Required): The applicants have demonstrated the capacity and ability to successfully complete projects of this scale and have the knowledge and ability to complete the proposed work. Full resumes were not included and additional background on the applicant's experience developing 10 or CGF. models (especially at the community/Borough level) would have been valuable. Project Costs Project costs (15 points).This criterion evaluates the budget to determine if it is realistic and commensurate with the project needs and time frame. Cost effectiveness of the project is considered. Is the proposed budget cost-effective and realistic based on the applicant's stated objectives, time frame, and amount of overall project budget already secured from other sources? Is the proposed budget sufficiently detailed, with appropriate budget breakdown and justification of costs by object class'? Comments (Required): The propused budget is moderately well developed and is within the expected range (although at the high end of that range) for the proposed work. Outreach and Education Outreach and education (10 points). This criterion assesses whether the project provides a focused and effective education and outreach strategy regarding NOAA's mission to protect the Nation's natural resources. Does the proposal identify anticipated benefits, potential users, indicators of success, and methods of disseminating results? Is an effective method proposed for dissemination of project results? Are the various target audiences, such as the fishing community or the general public, identified? Will the outreach methods acknowledge NOAA Fisheries support of die project? Comments (Required): Very little information is provided on outreach and education, other than posting the model and supporting data on a website, producing a report, and presenting at "various fisheries forums". It is unclear how the model will be used by the Kodiak Island Borough, how that will help them advocate for or against various management proposals, or the potential benefits to any other potential users of the model or data. Reviewer 37 Scoring Summary Total Score: 70 Scoring Details Score Range Criterion Page 12 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. 20 0-30 Importance/Relevance and Applicability of Proposal to the Program Goals 30 0-35 'technical/Scientific Merit 10 0-10 Overall Qualification of Applicant 7 0-15 Project Costs 3 0-10 Outreach and Education Review Criteria Importance/Relevance and Applicability of Proposal to the Program Goals Importance/relevance and applicability of proposed projects to the program goals (30 points). This criterion ascertains whether there is intrinsic value in the proposed work and/or relevance to NOAH, Federal, regional, state, or local activities. Does the proposal describe its relevance to a SK Program Priority in Section fi, and how information gathered will contribute to NOAH mission to enhance the understanding of the fishery resource and contribute to the body of information on which management decisions are made? Dass this study address an important problem, providing a clear definition of the problem, need, issue or research need to be addressed? Can the research question be answered using existing data? If not, is this the best method to obtain the data? Where applicable, is the participation of U.S. fishermen meaningfully incorporated into the project design? Will the project(s) yield environmentally compatible sucio-economic benefits, such as increased business opportunities, recreational opportunities, or decreased safety hazards? The appropriateness of the data sharing plan: Has the proposal included a Data Information Sharing Plan including description of the types of environmental data and information created during the course of the project; the tentative date by which data will be shared; the standards to be used for data/metadata format and content; policies addressing data stewardship and preservation; procedures for providing access, sharing and security; and prior experience in publishing such. Comments (Required): The study is designed to meet the needs of one fishing community in arguing the importance to it of a fishery that is currently being discussed for large-scale management changes. The proposal would be improved by expounding on its statement that the research will be applicable to other Alaskan communities. However, the proposal still meets the research goal of increasing information available about a fishing community by pulling together several extant data sources. It's not entirely clear that the proposal will be able to provide much specificity regarding costs and benefits of investing in infrastructure, but it will likely be able to provide a high level view, which at the very least is an improvement on the status quo. The ultimate result will likely be very useful to the community, it will get the community closer to being able to gauge the economic impacts of fisheries management measures. however, the proposal may be limited in its utility to managers, specifically in a Regulatory Impact Review process (cited in the proposal) due to the need to evaluate similar data available across multiple communities. The proposal is also lacking in its limited explanation of bow the data will be shared and Page 13 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. available for others. Technical/Scientific Merit 'I echnical and/or scientific merit (35 points). This criterion assesses whether the approach is technically sound and/or innovative, if the methods are appropriate, and whether there are clear project goals and objectives. Proposals should provide a clear definition of the approach to be used, including descriptions of field work, theoretical studies, and laboratory analysis to support the proposed research. Are the conceptual framework, design, methods, and analyses adequately developed, well -integrated, and appropriate to the aims of the project? Are the objectives in the proposal clearly defined and focused, realistic and can be reached within the proposed project period? Does the applicant acknowledge potential problem areas and consider ways to resolve the issues or implement alternative tactics? Does the project challenge existing paradigms or develop new methodologies or technologies? Is sufficient detail provided in the proposal about the methods proposed for monitoring and evaluating the success of the project, and are they appropriate? Does the project demonstrate support, cooperation and/or collaboration with the fishing industry? Is there sufficient description of the project's environmental impact? Have permits been applied for or acquired? Comments (Required): The proposal is well done on the explanation of the data sources and the researchers well describe the limitations orthe data sources they propose to use in this study. This demonstrates a strong understanding of what the caveats of any model produced, or results produced, would be. The modelling component of the proposal is left open-ended, however, it is clear that the researchers have at least done some initial work on the types of models they would explore. The small field work component of the research (executive interviews) is minimally discussed, and would benefit from more work on standardizing how that information will be collected. however, as this information would appear to be proposed for use as model parameters, this limited explanation does not significantly take away from this proposal. I he base goals of providing information to the community about the economic effects of different types of fisheries activity is focused and appears to be realistic within the one year time frame of the research proposed. The larger goal of the proposal in developing an economic impact model to serve the community around pending management measures does not seem realistic within the time frame of the time needed to successfully complete this research and the time frame of the developing management measures. Overall Qualification of Applicant Overall qualifications of the applicants (10 points). This criterion assesses whether the applicant, and team members, possess the necessary education, experience, training, facilities, and administrative resources to accomplish the project. Does the applicant have the capacitylknowledge to conduct the scope and scale of the proposed work, as indicated by the qualifications and past experience of the project Page 14 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. leaders .rad/or partners that show adequate administrative capability and experience in successfully completing similar projects? Are the institutional support, equipment and other physical resources available to the investigators adequate for the proposed project? Does the proposal include resumes of the. Principal Investigator(s)? In cases when; subcontracts aro proposed for carrying out specific tasks, are the quality/appropriateness of the personnel, facilities and procedures (laboratory methods, work plan and or quality oversight procedures) adequate? Comments (Required): The researchers all appear to be well qualified to successfully carry out this proposal. The main research entity has significant experience managing and carrying out projects such as this. Is it not clear what the experience of the other two researchers not associated with the consulting firm is with regards to project management, however, the contracting company involved provides sufficient administrative capability and experience. Project Costs Project costs (15 points).1his criterion evaluates the budget to determine if it is realistic and commensurate with the project needs and time frame. Cost effectiveness of the project is considered. Is the proposed budget cost-effective and realistic based on the applicant's stated objectives, time frame, and amount of overall project budget already secured from other sources? Is the proposed budget sufficiently detailed, with appropriate budget breakdown and justification of costs by object class? Comments (Required): The proposal is lacking in justification of the budget and mainly the role of each team member (specifically the group categorized as'other researchers/analysts'). "rhesc team members add significantly to the overall budget without an explanation of what their role in the research will be. Outreach and Education Outreach and education (10 points). This criterion assesses whether the project provides a focused and effective education and outreach strategy regarding NOAA's mission to protect the Nation's natural resources. Does the proposal identify anticipated benefits, potential users, indicators of success, and methods of disseminating results? Is an effective method proposed for dissemination of project results? Aro the various target audiences, such as the fishing community or the general public, identified? Will the outreach methods acknowledge NOAA Fisheries support of the project? Comments (Required): Page 15 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2. c. The proposal is lacking in its plan for outreach and education of the project results. The proposal simply states that it will post the project results on a web site. Therc should be more thought put into how this research will be disseminated to potential users of this information, especially because the proposal posits that it will be applicable to other communities. Additionally, there needs to be more explanation on what'various fisheries forums' will be. It is not clear what venues and to what audiences this project would be- shared eshared with. Page 16 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. Project Summary Reguesting Entity: Kodiak Island Borough Project Title: Modeling Kodiak Area Socioeconomic Impacts of Potential and Proposed Fishery Management Actions SK Priority: Priority #6 - Socio -Economic Research Project Location: Kodiak, Alaska Funding Requested: $192,900 Performance Period: August 2016 to August 2017 Research Team McDowell Group, Inc. Marysia Szymkowiak, Ph.D. Joshua Greenberg, Ph.D. Description of Proposed Activities and Anticipated Benefits/Outcomes The Kodiak Island Borough (KIB) and the City of Kodiak are initiating a major research project to develop a model for measuring the economic impact of commercial fisheries management measures on the local economy. The economic impact model would be designed to link changes in harvest volumes (by species) in federal and state fisheries with changes in local area direct, indirect and induced employment and labor income, as well as local tax revenue and associated indirect effects. Model development would include creating harvester/vessel operating models which would reflect conditions unique to each fishery. These models would capture crewing and expenditure patterns and the operational and financial interrelationships between various fisheries and species in supporting individual vessels. With this information it will be possible to model potential changes in participation, direct income, and support sector employment and labor/business income. Similarly, operating models for the processing sector will connect production volumes for various species with local employment, business and labor income, and local expenditures. The KIB and City of Kodiak, through the jointly appointed Kodiak Fisheries Work Group, are working with McDowell Group, an Alaska -based research firm with extensive experience studying the economic impact of the seafood industry in coastal communities, to gather a broad spectrum of commercial fishing and seafood processing data related to Kodiak, and conduct detailed analysis of the role of the seafood industry in the borough economy today. The KIB is seeking grant funding through the Saltonstall-Kennedy Competitive Research Program to build on that effort by supporting the development of a predictive model that will give residents and policy -makers a better understanding of the local economic consequences of proposed or implemented federal and state fisheries management changes. With respect to federal fisheries management, the Title of Report McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 7 Page 17 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. predictive model would provide logical next -step, detailed local -level impact analysis that would complement work already conducted by NMFS as part of its Regulatory Impact Review. Such a model would provide critical information for Kodiak residents and other stakeholders, allowing them to be more informed participants in the fisheries management decision-making process, and to be better prepared for management changes that do occur. The model will also serve as tool to consider the economic impacts of salmon fisheries management -related measures, and other fisheries subject to state management. This model satisfies National Standard 8 of the Magnuson -Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act (MSA), in that fishery management must consider socioeconomic impacts of management actions on fishing communities. Community resiliency requires ongoing investment in infrastructure in order to support the seafood industry. Another benefit of the model is that it could assist the community as it considers the costs and benefits of investing in infrastructure in support of the seafood industry. To the extent that such investment affects the volume of fish landed and processed locally, and the value that it added to that fish locally, this research will provide measures of local economic benefit in terms of employment, labor income, output (local sales) and local tax revenue. Finally, the Kodiak model could serve as a prototype for assessing the economic impacts of fisheries management measures in other coastal Alaska communities, or for assessing impacts over broader geographic regions (such as statewide). As articulated in greater detail in the following project description, this project will have three phases: • Detailed research and analysis of commercial fishing and seafood processing -related operating practices and spending patterns in Kodiak (supplementing the research currently underway) • Evaluation of previous modeling efforts aimed at measuring the local -level economic impact of commercial fishing and seafood processing in Alaska and the nation, and identifying the type of model most suitable for purposes of this project • Construction of the model framework and model calibration. • Development of narrative description (report) of model architecture, data sources, model assumptions, and results of initial analysis of potential management measures. Title of Report McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 1 Page 18 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. Soltooftall-Hunedl Groat Program Proposal Project Description Kodiak Area Socioeconomic Impact Modeling i. Project Goals and Objectives This proposal is directly related to Priority *6: Socioeconomic Research. The goal of the project Is to provide Kodiak residents and other stakeholders with a tool to understand the economic Impacts of potential or proposed commercial fisheries management measures. The groundfish fishery for the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) and the Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands area of the North Pacific is one of the largest volume and revenue producing fisheries in the world. Kodiak, owing to its location in the Gulf of Alaska and its rich tradition of commercial fishing, is a major center for commercial fishing and processing of groundfish. Kodiak consistently ranks among America's top three seafood ports in ex -vessel value. The seafood industry is the largest industry in Kodiak, with over 5130 million in ex -vessel revenues paid to KIB based fishermen.' Kodiak Island Borough's local economy has traditionally relied on commercial fishing, seafood processing, and commercial fishing support services. Few communities in Alaska are more dependent on the seafood industry than Kodiak, or more exposed to the economic consequences of federal fisheries resource management changes. Over its history, Kodiak has been at the front line of economic change brought on by government action, including the 1973 Limited Entry Act, the 1977 MSA, the IFQ Halibut and Sablefish program in 1995, and Bering Sea crab rationalization in 2005, along with a variety of other management actions aimed at resource conservation or marine mammal protection. While Kodiak has historically been a key stakeholder in fisheries management decisions, it has not had the information or the tools to either anticipate or prepare for the economic impacts of those decisions. Under the MSA, National Standard 8 requires fishery management actions to minimize economic impacts on fishing communities. The goal of this project is to develop an economic impact model that can serve Kodiak in this regard around pending management measures (such as the North Pacific Fishery Management Council's (NPFMC) (United Fishermen of Alaska, 2015) Salronstall-Kennedy Grant Application McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 7 Page 19 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2. c. evaluation of alternatives regarding GOA groundfish trawl fisheries by -catch) and potential future fisheries management measures. i. Project Impacts At a minimum, the project will provide Kodiak with a detailed understanding of the seafood industry's role in the local economy, including the role of individual fisheries and species. A combination of primary and secondary research will produce data more detailed than ever compiled for Kodiak, data that clarifies the spending, employment, and income connections between commercial fishing, seafood processing, and the service/supply sector. A fully successful modeling effort will give the community a robust tool for gauging the community level economic impacts of fisheries management measures, and preparing for and mitigating those impacts. Another benefit of the project is that it could support the community as it considers the costs and benefits of investing in infrastructure in support of the seafood industry. To the extent that such investment affects the volume of fish landed and processed locally, and the value that is added to that fish locally, the model will provide measures of local economic benefit in terms of employment, labor income, output (local sales) and local tax revenue. Community resiliency requires ongoing/ evolving investment in infrastructure. This tool could support analysis of return on that investment. Depending on its final design and utility, the Kodiak model could serve as a prototype for assessing the economic impacts of fisheries management measures in other coastal Alaska communities, or for assessing impacts over broader geographic regions (potentially including statewide analysis). 3. Evaluation of Project The model will be designed to measure the local economic impacts of changes in harvest volumes, values, and costs associated with harvesting and processing. We intend to test the utility of the model by observing the economic impact of gross and net value changes driven by market forces, using those changes as a proxy for changes in value driven by management measures. 4. Need for Government Financial Assistance The Kodiak Island Borough and the City of Kodiak are funding (for $40,000) the first phase of this project, including secondary data collection and initial economic impact analysis. The predictive modeling effort is a complex Saltanstall-Kennedy Grant Application McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 2 Page 20 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. undertaking, requiring extensive primary and secondary data collection, and sophisticated econometric modeling, with commensurate budget. As the primary purpose of this project is to create to tool to measure the impact of federal management measures, and as this work could reasonably be expected to part of the federal Regulatory Impact Review process, federal financial assistance is needed and appropriate. 5. Federal, State, and Local Government Activities and Permits None required. 6. Statement of Work PROJECT DESIGN: The proposed project has four phases: 1. Detailed secondary and primary data collection and analysis of commercial fishing and seafood processing -related operating practices and spending patterns in Kodiak 2. Evaluation of previous modeling efforts aimed at measuring the local - level economic impact of commercial fishing and seafood processing in Alaska, and identifying the type of model most suitable for purposes of this project 3. Construction of the model framework and model calibration. 4. Development of narrative description (report) of model architecture, data sources, model assumptions, and results of initial analysis of potential management measures. Data Collection SK grant funds will support baseline data collection for the most recent five- year period, depending on data availability. In some cases, time series may be extended further into the past to show important long-term trends, provided data is available and consistently tracked. From the KIB will provide: • Community fish tax revenues (by fishery, gear -type, and year) • Community infrastructure investment and operating costs • Sales tax revenue • Property tax revenue and assessed value for selected properties (e.g. processing plants) The study team will compile: 5altonstad-Kennedy Grant Application McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 3 Page 21 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. • Federal and state fisheries harvest volume and value data by fishery, gear type, and residency (monthly and/or annual data, depending on data availability) • Fishery participation data including permit holders and crew • Processing employment by year, month, and residency • Processing volume and first wholesale value by species/product • Operating months for local processors and species purchased • Estimated value and/or number of Limited Entry Permits, IFQ shares and other rationalization programs, federal fisheries permits, LLP licenses held by KIB residents and non-residents, and relevant community quota entities • Vessel ownership data, including analysis of vessels homeported in KIB communities or owned by KIB residents • Estimated leasing costs in fisheries subject to catch share management • Estimated payments to skippers and crew and common payment terms • Number of active vessels landing product in KIB or owned by KIB residents • Waterborne cargo data for selected KIB imports and exports (e.g. seafood, fuels, wood) McDowell Group is familiar with relevant public data sets needed for the project. We routinely work with ADF&G, DOLWD, and NMFS staff to design custom data requests and are aware of the nuances associated with various data sets. These data issues and caveats are often not apparent and lead uninformed researchers to reach incorrect conclusions. For example, ADF&G's Commercial Fisheries Entry Commission (CFEC) publishes a wealth of easily accessible data about harvest volume and value by fishery and place of residence. However, most researchers are probably unaware that the inclusion of catcher/ processor harvests in the data is not consistent over time and has grown in recent years. Using total figures for all species, this could lead researchers to conclude that harvest volume and value is rising faster than is actually the case. Data sources are explained in detail below. Fish Tickets and eLandings System (ADF&G/NMFS): DATA PROVIDED FOR PROJECT.' • Ex -vessel volume and value of Kodiak area landings by species, fishery/gear, and month • Number of active vessels and permits (including active LLPs) making landings by species, fishery/gear, and month Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Application McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 4 Page 22 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. • Groundfish production by species, product type, and processor type (shoreside, mothership, catcher/ processor) Commercial fishery landings in Alaska are tracked via a fish ticket system which functions as a receipt for fishermen and processors, as well as a tool for fishery managers. Landing records for individual fishermen and processors are confidential, but can be reported in an aggregated form, provided the data does not breach confidentiality restrictions. The eLandings system also includes daily and weekly production reports for processed volume of selected groundfish species. Fish tickets are the most responsive data source available, offering less time lag between when the landing occurs and when the data is available for analysis. The system also produces less data entry errors because there is a natural check/balance between fisherman and processor. However, there are issues with the data when it comes to reporting ex -vessel value. Some landings are transacted without an agreed-upon price. In these cases, the fishermen deliver fish to processors and settle on a base price later on. While base prices are eventually applied to landings by ADF&G personnel they do not include quality/handling bonuses or retro -payments. Thus, they present an incomplete account of fishery value, but can be used to as a proxy for current year harvest volume/value until other data becomes available Commercial Operators Annual Report (COAR): DATA PROVIDED FOR PRO/ECT. • Final ex -vessel volume and value of Kodiak area landings by species and fishery/gear-type • First wholesale production volume and value of seafood processed in the Kodiak area by species and product type The Commercial Operators Annual Report is submitted to ADF&G once a year by processors. It details the ex -vessel value and volume of product purchased during the previous calendar year as well as the first wholesale value of processed product. COAR data becomes available in May or June of the following year, depending on how much clean-up ADF&G has to do with the data and how many late submissions they receive. COAR submissions are due to ADF&G by April 1. COAR provides the most accurate account of ex -vessel and first wholesale value. The drawbacks of the data set are that it is not available until the middle of the following year, and it can provide a skewed value of first wholesale value. The program requests first wholesale value on the amount of product produced, not that which is sold. Depending on market conditions, it is Salronstall-Kennedy Grant Application McDowell Group, inc. • Page S Page 23 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. possible that unsold product will be assigned one price in COAR but subsequently sold for a different price at a later date. This is particularly true for canned salmon, which can be held as inventory for several years (although the vast majority is sold within 18 months). CFEC and NMFS Harvest Volume and Value by Residency and Fishery.. DATA PROVIDED FOR PROJECT. • Ex -vessel volume and value of landed by KIB residents, by species and fishery CFEC tracks harvest volume and value by species and gear -type. These data are made available via their website. NMFS conducts a similar analysis and publishes the data in NPFMC SAFE reports, although in a more aggregated format. One difference between the two data sets is that NMFS bases residency on the owner of the vessel for most fisheries whereas CFEC applies the harvest to the area of residency for the permit holder. This is a key distinction for many fisheries such as groundfish or crab, where skippers often do not own the vessel they command. We anticipate combining data from both sources to maximize the utility of each data set and minimize their weaknesses. State and Federal License, Permit, and Vessel Databases: DATA PROVIDED FOR PROJECT. • Number of vessels, permits, and IFQ quota owned by Kodiak residents, by community • Number of local resident crew members and commercial fishing permit owners, by community • Number of vessels homeported in the KIB • Cumulative value of selected permits, by community ADF&G and NMFS collect data on fishing vessels and fishermen who hold commercial fishing or crew permits. These data provide a historical account of fishermen, permits, quota, and vessels based in the Kodiak area. Commercial permit and vessel data is freely available, while crew member data must be purchased from ADF&G. Again, these data sets have important caveats. First, permit and vessel owners do not necessarily participate in the fisheries. Secondly, it is not possible to connect crew member data with the fishery or fisheries in which they are employed. Finally, vessel characteristics, including homeport designation, are submitted by the vessel owner and are generally not verified, so it is possible Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Application McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 6 Page 24 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. that a vessel may actually berth in Kodiak but show up in the data with a different homeport. The project team anticipates working closely with the Kodiak Harbormaster to define the Kodiak fleet. Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development (DOLWO) Employment Data: DATA PROVIDED FOR PROJECT. • Seafood processing employment by month and average monthly totals earned in Kodiak area • Seafood processing wage/salary income earned in Kodiak area • Number of seafood processing workers working in Kodiak, by local residents, other Alaska residents, and non -Alaska residents The State of Alaska tracks wage/salary employment, in terms of monthly worker counts, average monthly employment, and annual worker totals. The data can be sorted by occupation and industry. It also includes wage/salary earnings. Traditional government employment data does not include estimates for the commercial fishing sector as most fishermen are defined as self-employed. Data is based on employers who pay into the unemployment insurance (Ul) program. Commercial fishermen (and their crew) are exempt from paying UI taxes. However, DOLWD does produce separate monthly employment estimates for the commercial fishing sector, including the Kodiak region. While these statistics provide a measure of employment, they tend to understate employment activity because skippers and crew are only counted in months when a landing was made. Commercial fishermen spend considerable time before and after the season tending to fishing vessels and gear. In addition, fishermen often work much longer hours than most other professions during the season. McDowell Group has developed alternative methodologies for estimating average monthly employment in the commercial fishing sector and uses license/landings data to count the number of fishermen. Executive Interviews with Industry Contacts (Private and Confidential Data): DATA PROVIDED FOR PROJECT.' • Skipper/crew composition and average payment terms • Profile of common leasing practices and costs • Timing of processing operations and interaction with various regional fisheries • Processor dependence on various fisheries and species to support profitable operations • Purchasing and other economic connections between fishermen, processors, and Kodiak's service and supply sector. Saltonsrall-Kennedy Grant Application McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 7 Page 25 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. • Processors' and fishermen's concerns, and likely operational and investment responses to potential fisheries management measures Public data sets do not provide all of the data that is essential in conducting seafood industry economic impact analyses. To fill information gaps, McDowell Group will conduct interviews with industry contacts and blend their input with data from government agencies. For example, we can interview fishermen about common skipper/crew payment terms. These terms are often expressed as a percentage of the vessel's ex -vessel value. We then apply these averages to ex -vessel value for that fleet to estimate labor income for skippers and crew. With more than 40 years of experience consulting in the seafood industry, we have developed an exceptional list of contacts representing a wide array of perspectives. We will draw upon those contacts for this project. Other Sources of Information The study team will draw upon a variety of data as needed to conduct this study. For example, Army Corps of Engineers Waterborne Commerce Database provides seafood shipping statistics to/from Kodiak (and other Alaska ports). Internal Revenue Service data provides income data at the community level. The U.S. Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis provide a wide range of data related to economic conditions in Kodiak. We will also compile and review any relevant studies addressing the potential economic impact on Kodiak of GOA fisheries or potential management changes in those fisheries. This may include work conducted by Alaska Fisheries Science Center Economic and Social Sciences and Research Program, North Pacific Fisheries Management Council Scientific and Statistical Committee, Commercial Fisheries Entry Commission, and others. The purpose of this exercise is to avoid replicating research already done for related purposes. Finally, we will work closely with the City of Kodiak and Kodiak Island Borough to gather all available information concerning community investment in infrastructure and services used by participants in GOA and other fisheries. This will include harbor facilities and services, water and sewer/waste water utilities, solid waste collection and disposal, road maintenance, and other community -supported infrastructure and services. Analysis of Previous Modeling Efforts This task will include a literature review concerning fisheries economic impact modeling in U.S. coastal regions. We intend to seek input from other model 5altonstall-Kennedy GrantApplication McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 8 Page 26 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. developers and from this "lessons learned" approach, select the model framework best suited for the Kodiak model. Input-output (10) models have been used since the 1960s to better understand the impacts of fisheries management changes (Rorholm et al. 1967). Other work has taken the standard 10 model and modified it to overcome a number of possible shortcomings, including fixed prices, no substitution among production factors, linear relationships, and over/under estimation (Miller and Blair 1985; Hewings 1985). The social accounting matrix (SAM) is an 10 variant developed because of limitations in understanding the impacts of income distribution with a traditional 10 model (Seung and Waters 2006). The integrated econometric -input-output (EC -10) model allows price flexibility which is more consistent with theory (Ray 2000). In assessing regulation changes and their economic impact on fishing communities, special considerations and modifications are taken into account for small rural communities in Alaska.The Fisheries Economic Assessment Model (FEAM) is an 10 variant with much more of a fisheries -related focus than other broader 10 approaches (Natcher et al. 1999). An alternative to standard 10 models and its variants is the computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis. For fishery management changes, the CGE model would demonstrate the reaction of the Kodiak economy after a change occurs and analyze the direct/indirect as well as short/long term effects. Using a system of simultaneous equations, a CGE links together markets, sectors, and industries. CGE models, given a set of assumptions, generate an expected time path for variables, such as employment or output, to evaluate the consequences of a fishery management policies. Among their many applications, precedence exists for a CGE application to fisheries. According to Seung and Waters (2006), a CGE model is more appropriate than the 10 method in cases where management actions have significant indirect effects on prices or where productive inputs are limited in supply. However, 10 models typically require less effort to build, in contrast to CGE models which requiring specification and calibration of economic agents' behavior, such as production technology or consumer preferences. 10 models tend to have exogenous prices, whereas CGE prices are determined endogenously and are flexible. CGE models may be more appropriate than 10 models when the initial policy directly affects the supply of factors or resource inputs (Seung and Waters 2006). A CGE uses multiplier coefficients (e.g., IMPLAN) data augmented with additional regional and fisheries data. Salronstall-Kennedy Grant Application McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 9 Page 27 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. Single region CGE models are difficult to apply to Alaskan communities because of large imports of goods and services to the rural communities (Seung et. al 2014). Seung et. al (2014) used a multi -region CGE model which included the West Coast and the United States as other regions to measure economic effects of Alaska fisheries. Data from AKFIN, CFEC, PacFIN, and NMFS was used. A simulation experiment was created which examined harvest reductions, demand for Alaska seafood internationally, exchange rate changes, and demand for domestic seafood consumption. Each incorporated a "slack variable" associated with marginal changes to the scenario and captured the resource rents which accrued to the defined sectors. From this effort, changes to output, employment, factor income, and foreign exports could be understood. REFERENCES Hewmgs, G. (1985). Regional Input -Output Analysis. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications. Leontief, W. (1986). Input-output economics. Oxford Press on Demand. Miller, R. E., & Blair, P. D. (1985). Input -Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall Inc. Natcher, B., Greenburg, J., & Herrmann, M. (1999). Impact Analysis of Changes in Fishery Regulations in the Norton Sound Red King Crab Fishery. Journal of the Arctic Institute of North America, 52(1):33-9. Ray, S. (2000). Integrated Regional Econometric+Input-output Modeling: Issues and Opportunities. Papers in Regional Science , 79:271-92. Rorholm, N. H. (1967). Economic Impact of Marine Oriented Activities — A Study of the Southern Marine Region. Kingston, RI: University of Rhode Island :Agricultural Experiment Station Bulletin . Seung, C. K., & Waters, E. C. (2006). A Review of Regional Economic Models for Fishery Managemnet in the U.S. Marine Resource Economics, 101-124. Seung, C. K., Waters, E. C., & Leonard, J. L. (2014). Assessing Multiregional Economic Impacts of Alaska Fisheries: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis. Review of Urban and Regional Development Studies. Seung, C., & Waters, E. (2006). The Role of the Alaska Seafood Industry: A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) Model Approach to Economic Base Analysis. The Annals of Regional Science. Model Design, Construction and Calibration Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Application McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 10 Page 28 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. The scope and scale of this task will evolve as the preferred model type is defined in the preceding analysis of past fisheries economic impact modeling projects. This task may involve modification/customization of existing 10 models, such as IMPLAN, or development of an original model if sufficient data can be developed to fully define linkages between sectors of the Kodiak economy. Our project budget is based on the assumption that an original Excel -based model will be the preferred approach. Shortcomings of IMPLAN and RIMS are well known, with respect to measuring economic impacts of commercial fishing in smaller coastal communities. As suggested in the Data Collection description above, the model will account for a range in factors, such as: • Fishery Resources: Historical data on biomass, TACs, ex -vessel value, value-added by local processing, and harvest/ utilization by species and fishery (gear type). • Infrastructure: Harvesting. local and non -local vessels active in the fishery, estimated harvesting capacity, asset value (boats/gear and permits/quota), jobs per vessel. Processing. shoreside and floating capacity by species (incorporating new investments), employment by month/facility, production mix/capacity by facility, changes in asset value. • Support sector: inventory of port facilities and their capacity, employment/capacity of other private sector support businesses, government agencies/ budgets, transportation capacity/etc. • Participation (Employment): Estimated employment (annual average and worker counts) by sector (harvesting, processing, and support), residency, species, and fishery. • Direct Income: Gross earnings and wages/est. profits by sector (harvesting, processing, and support), residency, species, and fishery. • Operating Expenses (not including direct labor payments): Operating/depreciation expenses by sector, species, fishery, and residency. • Taxes: Estimated taxes and fishery management fees/etc. to local, state, and federal bodies. Including direct taxes and possibly indirect/induced taxes • Induced Impacts: jobs and income in business providing goods and services to industry workers. • Technology: Impact of technology on employment, informed by historical production/harvest volume/value relative to employment. saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Application McDowell Group, Inc. • Page Il Page 29 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. • Demand Elasticity: To inform how changing the volume of a species impacts price and total value. Project Reporting Model documentation will include narrative description of model architecture, data sources, and model assumptions. A report of model results will be prepared, including description of local multipliers for various fisheries and species. The report will also include results of analysis of specific fisheries management measure, which will be determined following model construction and calibration. RESPONSIBILITIES: McDowell Group will be responsible for all data collection aspects of this project. Analysis of potential model frameworks and model construction will be conducted in association with McDowell Group, Dr. josh Greenberg and Dr. Marysia Szymkowiak. McDowell Group will prepare model documentation. DATA SHARING PLAN: This project will not generate any environmental data. Data will be made available consistent with Section VI.13.3. DISSEMINATION OF REsuLTs: Supporting data and model results will disseminated by KIB via web site post. A detailed manual describing model mechanics and operations will be produced. Results will also be presented at various fisheries forums. The model and its documentation will be suitable for distribution to other researchers. PROJECT MILESTONES: • Months 1: Detailed study design and data collection planning (full project team) • Months 2-3: Data collection and modelling literature review (McDowell Group) • Month 4: Selection of model type and definition of framework (full project team) • Months 5 to 10: Model construction and calibration (full project team) • Months 10 to 12: Documentation and reporting (McDowell Group) • Project completion 12 months from launch. Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Application McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 72 Page 30 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. 7. Project Management The project will be administered by Kodiak Island Borough on behalf of the Kodiak Fisheries Workgroup and elected officials of the Borough Assembly and City Council. With McDowell Group working under contract for the KIB, McDowell Group Principal and Senior Economist Jim Calvin will serve as Project Supervisor/Principal Investigator. Dr. Josh Greenberg and Dr. Marysia Szymkowiak will serve as project advisors and assist in model development. Stephanie Warpinski will be day-to-day project manager and co -investigator. Other researchers/analysts on the project team will include Andy Wink, Garrett Evridge, Chris McDowell, and Dan Lesh. Brief resumes of project team members are provided below. McDowell Group Principal Jim Calvin's specialties include economic and socioeconomic impact analyses, cost/benefit analyses, business feasibility studies, and local, regional, and statewide economic profiles. He has been with the McDowell Group for 29 years. Since joining the firm, Jim has completed approximately 500 research and consulting assignments related to Alaska industry and economics for 100 government and private sector clients. Jim's fisheries -related statewide and regional economic impact studies, fisheries impact assessments, hatchery impact studies, seafood product market assessments, and a variety of other reports related to Alaska's seafood industry. Jim has conducted community -level economic modeling and analyses in dozens of Alaska's communities. Jim's formal education includes a Master of Science in mineral economics from the University of Alaska Fairbanks. Joshua Greenberg, Ph.D., is most recently the Chair for the Department of Humans and the Environment, School of Natural Resources and Agricultural Sciences in the University of Alaska Fairbanks. He holds a Ph.D. in Agricultural Economics from Washington State University. Joshua has conducted extensive research for the Bering Sea Fisherman's Research Fund, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, and the North Pacific Research Board, primarily on economic impacts of policy changes and econometric market models related to Alaska's seafood industry. His research explores the intersection between the natural sciences, economics, and public policy and has addressed commercial, sport, and subsistence fisheries for halibut, pollock and other groundfish, salmon, and crab in Alaska. Marysia Szymkowiak, Ph.D., is an Alaska Sea Grant fellow conducting a comprehensive review of the halibut and sablefish IFQ program. Marysia holds a Ph.D. in Marine Studies and Fishery Management from the University of Delaware, publishing a doctoral thesis on "An Evaluation of Community Saironstall-Kennedy Giant Application McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 13 Page 31 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. Protection Measures in the Alaska Halibut IFQ Program." She has published extensively on both the Alaska halibut IFQ program and assessing the impacts of community protection measures in catch share programs. Marysia has prior work experience as a NMFS social scientist contractor and a fisheries economist intern. McDowell Group Economist Stephanie Warpinski holds a Master's of Science in Resource and Applied Economics from the University of Alaska Fairbanks. Her master's thesis involved an econometric analysis of the Alaska sablefish fishery, including the impacts of the IFQ system on sablefish ex -vessel prices and revenues. Stephanie recently was a lead analyst on McDowell Group's wholesale market analysis for 16 different federal Alaska groundfish products, being prepared for National Marine Fisheries Service. She is currently working on a transboundary river economic impact analysis for Southeast Alaska's major rivers by estimating the commercial and sport fishing sectors' overall contribution to the rivers' economic value. McDowell Group Senior Seafood Industry Analyst Andy Wink is a project manager specializing in seafood market analysis, feasibility studies, and economic impact studies. He was primary researcher and author of McDowell Group's comprehensive assessment of the Economic Value of the Alaska Seafood Industry, conducted in 2013 for ASMI. Andy provides regular and ad- hoc research and analysis for the Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute's Seafood Market Information Service (SMIS). He has also worked on a variety of seafood - related projects such as economic impact reports for Alaska salmon hatcheries, Russian fisheries analysis, history of pink salmon product development, and a snow crab market report for the Newfoundland/Labrador Department of Fisheries and Aquaculture. McDowell Group Senior Seafood Industry Consultant Chris McDowell is a leading authority on seafood markets. He has written extensively and presented on issues surrounding domestic/international markets, product form, and supply trends. Chris managed McDowell Group's Seafood Market Information Service from 1998 through 2011, providing market and supply research on Alaska's major commercial species under a long-term contract with ASMI. He has a strong background in commercial fishing and remains active in seasonal commercial fisheries for salmon, halibut, sablefish and crab. He is a longtime participant and quota holder in longline fisheries for halibut and sablefish in Southeast Alaska and in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska. This combination of experience gives him an unusual depth of understanding for fisheries data and physical logistics of the industry. Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Application McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 14 Page 32 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. McDowell Group Research Analyst Garrett Evridge, a lifelong Alaskan from Kodiak, has either managed or provided support for a wide variety of fisheries and maritime projects while at McDowell Group. He has also fished commercially for salmon, halibut, cod, shrimp, and crab in the Bering Sea, Kodiak, Prince William Sound, and Southeast. His commercial fishing experience and experience on maritime economic and socioeconomic projects across the state qualify him as an integral member of McDowell Group's seafood team. McDowell Group Research Analyst Dan Lesh brings to the team professional experience that includes analyzing fisheries and natural resource policy as a legislative analyst for the Alaska Legislature. In addition to professional research experience, Dan brings to the project extensive personal experience in the charter fishing sector, commercial fishing, and the subsistence halibut fishery. 8. Participation by Other Persons or Groups Under the auspices of the Kodiak Island Borough, local fisheries -related organizations are expected to play an advisory/support role in the project. This includes participation by Kodiak Fisheries Work Group, a group formed in 2013 to stay well informed regarding potential impacts of State and Federal fishery management actions for Kodiak. Also, the Kodiak Fisheries Advisory Committee, a group of community representatives from the fishery industry, may be engaged in an informal advisory capacity. 5altonstad-Kennedy brant Application McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 15 Page 33 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. Budget Narrative Kodiak Area Socioeconomic Impact Modeling The project will be conducted by McDowell Group under contract to the Kodiak Island Borough. The SK grant request to support this contract is $192,900. The budget for each phase of the project is presented in the following table. Estimated hours and cost for each study team member are also provided. Project Budget by Phase Phase 1 - Data Collection 200 127 $25,400 Phase 2 - Literature Review/Model 240 127 30,480 Evaluation Phase 3 - Model Construction 720 127 91,420 Phase 4 - Documentation and Reporting 300 127 38,100 Professional Services Totals $185,400 Project Expenses $7,500 Total Proposed Budget $192,900 Total Project Hours and Cost by Team Member Calvin 200 135 $27,000 Warpinski 400 120 48,000 Wink 160 125 20,000 Evridge 280 120 33,600 C. McDowell 80 125 10,000 Lesh 80 120 9,600 Greenberg 140 150 21,000 Sz mkowiak - 120 135 16,20 Totals 1,460,' ,0 5185,4 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Application Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion McDowell Group, Inc. • Page I Page 34 of 51 AGENDA ITEM #2.c. Project expenses are funds set aside for travel for members of the study team to travel to Kodiak at project launch for consultation with the Kodiak Fisheries Work Group, meetings with key data sources located in Kodiak, and for presentation of the model and related documents upon project completion. Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Application Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 2 Page 35 of 51 AGENDA ITEM #2.c. ioppomiop Dommtotioo McDowell Group, Inc. Qualifications and Experience In business since 1972, McDowell Group is Alaska's most experienced multidisciplinary research and consulting firm. A cornerstone of the firm's practice is Alaska's commercial fishing and seafood processing industries. McDowell Group seafood industry experience includes over 300 projects for local, state, and federal government agencies, Alaska Native corporate and tribal organizations, fishermen's associations, private processing companies, and other for-profit businesses. McDowell Group brings to this project a clear understanding of commercial fishery and seafood processing economics, markets for Alaska fisheries resources, and community economics. McDowell Group's resume of work related to measuring the economic impact of the seafood industry includes several major statewide studies and numerous regional studies. The firm conducted the original Alaska Seafood Industry Study, the first comprehensive assessment of the employment and income impacts of commercial fishing and seafood processing in Alaska. In 2013, McDowell Group conducted another comprehensive assessment, the Economic Value oftheAlaska Seafoodindustry. That study measured the economic value of Alaska seafood statewide and in Alaska's coastal regions (including the Kodiak region). It quantified the direct and secondary effects of the Alaska seafood industry throughout the entire domestic supply chain. That study, which is sponsored by ASMI, is currently being updated. Most recently (in 2015), McDowell Group prepared an assessment of The Economic impact of the Seafood Industry in Southcentral Alaska. Prepared for the Alaska Salmon Alliance, the report includes regional and local -level impact assessments along with descriptive profiles of industry activity in each community. Major seafood industry policy -related assignments conducted by McDowell Group include the 2006 State of Alaska Seafood Economic Strategies. Commissioned by the Office of the Governor, the goal of this project was to guide and align the state's commercial seafood policies over the long term to maximize economic benefit for Alaska. McDowell Group prepared the Glacier Bay Compensation Plan Economic Assessment In that study we were asked to calculate the economic loss that would be suffered by commercial fisheries Saltonstall-Kennedy brant Application McDowell Croup, Inc. • Page I Page 36 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. permit holders, crew, processors, their employees, support businesses and communities that were dependent on fisheries resources in Glacier Bay, which was being closed to commercial fishing. McDowell Group was also asked to assist in the development of a compensation plan for equitably distributing the $23 million that had been set aside to compensate affected parties. McDowell Group has conducted a number of economic impact studies focused on specific fisheries, including: • Economic Impact of the Commercial Halibut Fishing Industry in Areas 1C and 3A • Lost Economic Opportunity in the 1003-1008 Bristol Bay Sockeye Fishery • Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands Crab Fisheries Survey, License Limitation and Buy Back Program • Southeast Alaska Seine Fleet Projected Ex -Vessel Earnings • Net Economic Benefit of Northern Lynn Canal Gillnet Fishery • Analysis of Inshore/Offshore Impacts on the CDQ Pollock Program • Economic Impacts of the Chinook Salmon Harvests in Southeast Alaska • Economic Impacts of IFQs on Rural Southeast Alaska • Socioeconomic Impacts of the Proposed IFQ System on Southeast Alaska Communities • The Economic Impacts and Condition of the Alaska Salmon Troll Fleet • An Assessment of the Formation of a jV Fishery by the Chignik Limited EntrySalmon Permit Holders • Economic Impact of Enhanced Salmon in Resurrection Bay • Economic Potential of the Southeast Alaska Sea Urchin Dive Fishery • Analysis of Commercial Fisheries in the Aleutians East Borough The firm's seafood processing -related consulting assignments include the following: • Kake Seafood Plant Business Plan • Columbia River Commercial Fish Processing Center.- Feasibility Analysis and Business Plan • Dillingham Seafood Processing Plant Feasibility Study and Business Plan • Atka Pride Seafoods Plant Restructing Plan Sartonstall-Kennedy Grant Application McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 1 Page 37 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. • Feasibility Study of Nelson Lagoon Seafood Processing Plant • Valdez Fisheries Development Association Regional Cold Storage Facility Business Plan • Feasibility Study and Business Plan for a False Pass Seafood Processing Plant • Bristol Bay District and Community Needs and Ice Machine Assessment • Feasibility Study for Reopening the Hydaburg Seafood Plant • Valdez Cold Storage and Processing Facility Feasibility Study • Fresh Seafood Freight Consolidation Facility.- Analysis and Action Plan • Feasibility Study for Reopening the Hydaburg Seafood Plant • Business Plan and Feasibility Study for a Public Cold Storage in Wrangell In addition to this experience with seafood development throughout Alaska, McDowell Group's knowledge of Alaska seafood resources includes our 17 -year contract with the Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute (ASMI) to provide periodic and ad-hoc seafood market information and analysis. We regularly research and report on seafood market and production conditions in Alaska, the U.S., and worldwide. We have produced Salmon Market Bulletins for ASMI and its constituents since 1998, and All -Species Market Bulletins beginning in 2005. In addition, McDowell Group is regarded as a leading expert on sockeye markets through our work for the Bristol Bay Regional Seafood Development Association (BBRSDA). Further, we are currently engaged in a major research project for the National Marine Fisheries Service in which we are preparing detailed wholesale market profiles for 16 different Alaska groundfish products. The firm's work in the Kodiak area (other than regional analysis as part of statewide studies) includes two studies commissioned by the Kodiak Island Borough in the early 2000s. In the study An Assessment of the Socioeconomic Impacts on Kodiak of Management Alternatives in the Alaska Groundfish Fisheries Draft Programmatic Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement McDowell Group assessed the impacts on the Kodiak economy of proposed changes to federal groundfish management in the Gulf of Alaska, Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands areas. Groundfish comprised 70 percent of volume and over 40 percent of value of fish landed in Kodiak, and therefore provided one of the most important components of Kodiak's base economy. This study developed a model of the Kodiak economy using Department of Labor data and independent estimates of fishing employment. McDowell Group then assessed anticipated changes in the Kodiak economy for each of the nine fishery Salwnstall-Kennedy Grant Application McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 3 Page 38 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. management alternatives proposed by the National Marine Fisheries. Our Analysis of Economic Impacts from Fishing Restrictions on the Kodiak Island Borough Economy was an update of the study reflecting changes in Kodiak's economy due to fishery abundance, market conditions, and management regimes. Salronstall-Kennedy Grant Application McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 4 Page 39 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. Biographies for Key Project Staff JIM CALVIN, MCDOWELL GROUP PRINCIPAL Education: MS, Mineral Economics, University of Alaska Fairbanks BS, Western Washington University Years with McDowell Group: 29 years Jim Calvin has authored, managed or supervised more than 400 consulting and research assignments throughout Alaska, from Kotzebue to Ketchikan, for 100 government and private sector clients. Jim's specialties include economic and socioeconomic impact analyses, cost/benefit analyses, business feasibility studies, and local, regional, and statewide economic profiles. As McDowell Group's Managing Principal, Jim has supervised dozens of projects related to Alaska's seafood industry, including industry and fishery economic impact studies, plant feasibility studies, and market assessments. Jim's seafood industry project management experience includes fishery impact studies, such as the Economic Impact of the Commercial Halibut Fishing Industry in Areas 2C, Analysis of Economic Impacts from Fishing Restrictions on the Kodiak Island Borough Economy, Net Economic Benefit of Northern Lynn Canal Gillnet Fishery, Economic Impacts of the Chinook Salmon Harvests in Southeast Alaska, Economic Impacts of IFQs on Rural Southeast Alaska, Socioeconomic Impacts of the Proposed IFQ System on Southeast Alaska Communities, Economic Impacts and Condition of the Alaska Salmon Troll Fleet. Jim's personal experience in the commercial fisheries includes a season halibut long -lining, and several seasons as a deck -hand on a power troller. Related Project Experience Jim has managed economic impact studies for every major industry in Alaska and dozens of resource development projects. In addition to seafood industry -related projects, Jim has managed studies of the economic impact of Alaska's oil and gas industry (three editions), visitor industry (four editions), and mining industry (annually). His economic impact work also includes studies of the impact of University of Alaska (statewide, regional, and campus level), the economic impacts of early learning and child care services in Alaska, and the economic impact of alcohol and drug abuse in Alaska, among others. These projects include Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Application McDowell Group, Inc. • page S Page 40 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. detailed assessment of direct, indirect, and induced impacts, using models such as IMPLAN and a variety of other analytical tools. • Jim served as lead researcher and co-author on the original Alaska Seafood Industry Study- a milestone project in the quantification of the economic impacts of one of Alaska's largest industries. Prior to this study, the economic role of the seafood industry in the state and each of its regions had not been accurately measured. Participation and earnings models developed for the study yielded new data on seafood harvesting employment and net income, as well as on other aspects of the industry. • Jim's experience with the Kodiak area economy includes that gained in a major transportation planning study, the 2011 Island -Wide Transportation Feasibility Study for Kodiak Island. That study assessed the feasibility of a Kodiak Island -wide ferry and road transportation system connecting the Island's outlying communities to the city of Kodiak. The study included visits to and analysis of the economies of Old Harbor, Akhiok, Larsen Bay, Karluk, Port Lions, and Ouzinkie, as well as the community of Kodiak. • Jim was project manager for the 2002 Glacier Bay Compensation Plan Economic Assessment. In 1999, the National Park Service initiated a plan to close the waters of Glacier Bay National Park to all commercial fishing - an area with over 50 years of commercial fishing activity. Jim lead the analysis to calculate the economic loss suffered by commercial fisheries permit holders, crew, processors, their employees, support businesses, and communities that were dependent on commercial fishing in Glacier Bay. Jim also assisted in the development of a compensation plan for distributing the $23 million set aside to compensate affected parties. • Jim also managed a comprehensive assessment of the economic impacts of critical habitat designations in Alaska (2013). Conducted for the Alaska Department of Commerce, Community, and Economic Development, the study evaluated costs to businesses and investors in Alaska from critical habitat designations (CHDs) under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). ANDY WINK, SENIOR SEAFOOD ANALYST Education: BS, Economics, University of Wisconsin - La Crosse BS, Finance, University of Wisconsin - La Crosse Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Application McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 6 Page 41 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion Years with McDowell Group: 5 years Andy is an authority on economic impacts and market research related to the Alaska seafood industry. He contributed to several recent projects specifically dealing with economic impacts and issues of the seafood industry in Kodiak, and was named the "top fish economist" of 2014 by Alaska Fish Radio. Andy's specialties include economic and socioeconomic impact analyses relating to the Alaska seafood industry, seafood market analyses, seafood processing plant feasibility studies, and local, regional, and statewide economic profiles. Prior to joining McDowell Group, Wink was a labor economist with the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and focused on resident hire and seafood industry employment analyses. RELATED PROJECT EXPERIENCE • Project manager and lead analyst of the Economic Value of the Alaska Seafood Industry Qune 2013) report, which quantified impacts of the Alaska seafood industry at a regional, statewide, and national level. Andy and Chris McDowell created proprietary economic impact models for Pacific halibut and sablefish IFQ fisheries as part of the project. Andy also developed a framework for estimating supply to, and impacts of, Alaska seafood products in domestic retail/foodservice markets. The project is currently in the process of being updated. • Project manager and contributing author of ongoing Wholesale Market Profiles for Alaska Federal Groundfish and Crab Fisheries, examining production volume, wholesale value, key markets, and competing supply related to Alaska groundfish and crab species - including a chapter on Pacific halibut. • Project manager and lead analyst of The Economic Impact of the Seafood Industry in Southcentral Alaska (June 2015). The project quantified regional and community -level economic impacts in Anchorage, Mat -Su Borough, the greater Kenai area, Homer, Seward, Cordova, and Valdez resulting from Alaska's seafood industry - including halibut fisheries. • Project manager and lead analyst for (ongoing) research and consulting contract with the Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute (ASMI). McDowell Group has been researching seafood markets, presenting findings to public and industry audiences, and providing strategic consulting services for ASMI since 1998. Andy compiles and oversees numerous internal databases pertaining to Pacific halibut harvest, employment, Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Application McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 7 Page 42 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. vessel participation, wholesale production volume/value, export/domestic sales, and pricing. GARRETT EVRIDGE, RESEARCH ANALYST Education: BA, Economics, University of Alaska Fairbanks MS, Natural Resource and Applied Economics, University of Alaska Fairbanks (Expected Completion: December 2015) Years with McDowell Group: 3 years A lifelong Alaskan from Kodiak, Garrett has either managed or provided support for a wide variety of fisheries and maritime projects while at McDowell Group. He has fished commercially for salmon, halibut, cod, shrimp, and crab in the Bering Sea, Kodiak, Prince William Sound, and Southeast. His commercial fishing experience and experience on maritime economic and socioeconomic projects across the state qualify him as an integral member of our seafood team. • Managed the Trends and Opportunities in the Alaska Maritime Industrial 5upport Sector report, which examined the Alaska fleet of nearly 10,000 vessels, maritime infrastructure in 22 Alaska communities, and maritime services available in coastal cities and towns in the state. Garrett presented the findings of this report at the 2015 Southwest Alaska Municipal Conference. • Contributed to a variety of fisheries and maritime projects for clients including the Alaska Salmon Alliance, Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute, Valdez Fisheries Development Association, Alaska Department of Commerce, Community, and Economic Development, and Bristol Bay Regional Seafood Development Association. • Currently providing support for a project producing market profiles for Alaska groundfish and crab species caught in federal fisheries including the Gulf of Alaska. STEPHANIE WARPINSKI, ECONOMIST Education: MS, Resource and Applied Economics, University of Alaska Fairbanks BS, International Business and Economics, Marquette University Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Application Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 8 Page 43 of 51 AGENDA ITEM #2. c. Stephanie joined McDowell Group as an economist in 2015, adding depth to the firm's seafood and fisheries expertise. She recently completed her Masters of Science in Resource and Applied Economics from the University of Alaska Fairbanks. Her master's thesis involved an economic analysis of the Alaska sablefish fishery, including the impacts of the IFQ system on sablefish ex - vessel prices and revenues. Stephanie is McDowell Group's lead researcher on its development of Wholesale Market Profiles for Alaska Federal Groundfish Fisheries. The comprehensive market research project includes assessing market conditions for 17 different product forms, including those produced from Pollock, Pacific cod, halibut, sablefish, yellowfin sole, rock sole, Atka mackerel, Pacific Ocean Perch, king crab, and snow crab products. Stephanie's professional interests in sustainably developing Alaska's marine resources coincides with her longtime research interests in international trade and economics. Originally hailing from the Midwest, she graduated from Marquette University in Milwaukee, Wisconsin with a bachelor's degree in International Business and Economics and worked at the World Trade Center Wisconsin in international market analysis. DAN LESH, RESEARCH ANALYST Education: BA, Biology (with honors), Grinnell College, Grinnell, Iowa Years with McDowell Group: 1 year Total years as a subsistence halibut fisherman: 15 years A lifelong Alaskan with a broad perspective of the region's fisheries and visitor industries, Dan's professional experience includes analyzing fisheries and natural resource policy as a legislative analyst for the Alaska Legislature; extensive experience helping run his family's charter fishing and tourism lodge in Gustavus, Alaska (in the family since 1965); and commercial fishing experience on a catcher -processor in the Southeast Alaska Pot Shrimp fishery and a Class D boat in the 2C halibut fishery. Additional fisheries experience includes several summers processing halibut and crab and a lifelong relationship with the subsistence halibut fishery. Learning to longline from his father, a former commercial halibut and black cod fisherman, Dan first held a Subsistence Halibut Registration Certificate (SHARC) card in 2006. saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Application McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 9 Page 44 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. Joining the firm in 2015, Dan holds a bachelor's degree in Biology, with honors, from Grinnell College in Iowa. He has roughly 20 months of experience working in biology and ecology as lab and field assistant in Oregon (Bureau of Land Management), in Belize and Chile (for Ph.D. students and professors at Grinnell College and the University of Chicago), and in Alaska for various entities. CHRIS MCDOWELL, SENIOR SEAFOOD CONSULTANT Education: BA, Communications, University of Oregon Years with McDowell Group: 15 year Total years as a commercial halibut fisherman: 20 years Chris McDowell worked for 15 years as a Seafood Industry Analyst with McDowell Group and now serves as an advisor on McDowell Group seafood industry projects. He grew up commercial fishing in Southeast Alaska and remains active in several commercial fisheries as a permit and IFQ holder and vessel owner/operator. Chris began commercial fishing for halibut in Glacier Bay as a teenager in 1983 and has been actively involved in longline fisheries for halibut and sablefish ever since. His longline experience spans the final decade of the open -access fisheries for halibut and blackcod and the first 20 years of the IFQ fisheries. He has been a crewman, quota holder, vessel owner and skipper on longliners ranging from 32 to 58 feet, operating from Sitka to Kodiak. He now fishes as owner/operator of a 55 -foot combination vessel in the Eastern Gulf IFQ longline fisheries for halibut and sablefish. Chris bought into the IFQ halibut fishery in 2000 and now holds a substantial amount of sablefish and halibut quota. He served as a Director of Commercial Fishing and Agriculture Bank (CFAB) and has considerable experience with financing IFQ and with industry norms regarding contracts for IFQ vessel leases, walk-on quota holders, estate permits and medical transfers. saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Application McDowell Group, Inc • Page 10 Page 45 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. (urdula Rae Marysia Szymkowiak, Ph.D. 590 Alder Street Juneau, Alaska 998oi (907) 500-5262 Email: marysia@udel.edu SUMMARY OF QUALIFICATIONS Extensive experience researching Alaska's Federal and State Fisheries o Including publishing or presenting research on the halibut and sablefish IFQ fisheries, the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands crab fisheries, the Community Development Quota program, and the limited entry program in Alaska's State fisheries o Presenting research to the North Pacific Fishery Management Council o Conducting field visits for social science research in Western Alaskan communities and interviews with various fisheries participants Nearly 10 years of experience analyzing the impacts of environmental and fisheries management policies on communities and stakeholder groups for written and oral presentations to government, academic, and lay audiences. Other relevant experience includes working with large datasets (50,000+ observations), managing multi-year projects with numerous federal, state, and industry partners, coordinating workshops and meetings, and managing deliverables for grants. SUMMARY OF SKILLS An interdisciplinary training with a focus on economics and the application of statistics to analyzing the impacts of public policies Quantitative skills include decision (fixed effects and rare events logit) and count data (Poisson and negative binomial) modeling, social network analysis, relational contingency table analysis, principal component analysis, mathematical programming Qualitative skills include structured and semi -structured interviews, content analysis, survey development STATA, Eviews, SPSS, ArcGIS, Risk Solver, Microsoft Office Suite Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Application McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 11 Page 46 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. EDUCATION PH.D. UNIVERSITY OF DELAWARE, Marine Studies/ Fisheries Management, 2015 Doctoral Thesis: "An Evaluation of Community Protection Measures in the Alaska Halibut IFQ Program" Co -Advisors: Lee Anderson (University of Delaware) and Ron Felthoven (NOAA's Alaska Fisheries Science Center) - An application of a variety of econometric modeling tools to an assessment of the impacts of quota share trading restrictions, leasing, and provisions intended to help new entrants, including mathematical programming, fixed effects logit modeling, count data modeling, rare events logit modeling, and relational contingency table analysis. M.A. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY, International Environmental Policy, 2009 EXPERIENCE 2015 -present Alaska Sea Grant Fellow National Marine Fisheries Service; Juneau, Alaska Project: A comprehensive, 20 -year review of halibut and sablefish IFQ program 2013-2015 Social Scientist (Contractor) Economics and Social Science Research Division, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, AK Projects: "Showcasing the CDQ Program" and "Understanding active participation, crew compensation, and lease rates in the Bering Sea Aleutian Islands crab rationalization program" 2012 Fisheries Economist Intern National Marine Fisheries Service, Juneau Regional Office, Juneau, AK 2009-2011 Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education Research Fellow U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Water, Washington, DC Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Application McDowell Group, Inc. • Gage 12 Page 47 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. Projects: National Coastal Condition Report IV, National Coastal Condition Assessment, National Estuary Program 2007-2009 Environmental Researcher and Analytical Assistant American University, Global Environmental Policy Program, Washington, DC Project: "Living Through the End of Nature" (Paul Wapner) 2008 Fisheries Researcher, American Association for the Advancement of Science, DC Project: Science and Innovation for Sustainable Development Forum 2007 Fisheries Researcher, Cape Cod Commercial Hook Fishermen's Association (CCCHFA), North Chatham, Massachusetts PUBLICATIONS WORKING PAPERS (SELECTION) Szymkowiak, Marysia and Amber Himes-Cornell, "Towards individual - owned and owner -operated fleets in the Alaskan halibut and sablefish IFQ program," Accepted at Maritime Studies, to be published online on December 2, 2015. Szymkowiak, Marysia and Ron Felthoven, "Understanding the Determinants of Hired Skipper Use in the Alaska Halibut IFQ Fishery," under review at North American Journal of Fisheries Management. Szymkowiak, Marysia and Amber Himes-Cornell, "Retaining fishing privileges with active fishermen: a review of active participation requirements," under review at the Alaska Fisheries Science Center. Joshua A. Greenberg Department of Natural Resources Management, and Department of Economics University of Alaska Fairbanks Fairbanks, Alaska 99775 Phone: 907.474-7189 Email: i.greenberg@alaska.edu EDUCATION Ph.D. Agricultural Economics, Washington State University, December 1990. Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Application McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 13 Page 48 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. M.S. Resource Economics, University of Alaska Fairbanks, December 1984. B.S. Business Administration, University of Connecticut, May 1982. EXPERIENCE Chair, Department of Humans and the Environment, School of Natural Resources and Agricultural Sciences, January 2004 - June 30 2014. Associate Professor of Economics, Joint Appointment, School of Natural Resources and Extension and School of Management, July 2004- Present. Associate Professor of Resource Economics, Department of Resources Management, School of Natural Resources and Extension, University of Alaska Fairbanks. July 1995 - Present. Assistant Professor of Resource Economics, Department of Resources Management, School of Agriculture and Land Resources Management, University of Alaska Fairbanks. November 1990 - July 1995. Economist, National Marine Fisheries Service, and Research Assistant, Department of Agricultural Economics, Washington State University. August 1985 - October 1990. SELECTED REFEREED PUBLICATIONS Natcher B., J.A. Greenberg, and M. Herrmann. 'Impact Assessment of Changes in Fishery Regulations in the Norton Sound Red King Crab Fishery." Arctic. Vol. 52 (1). 1999: 33-39. Criddle, K. C., M. Herrmann, and J.A. Greenberg, and E. M. Feller. "Climate Fluctuations and Revenue Maximization in the Eastern Bering Sea Fishery for Walleye Pollock." North America Journal of Fisheries Management. 1998: 1-10. Herrmann, M. and J.A. Greenberg, and K.R. Criddle. "Proposed Pot Limits for the Adak Brown King Crab Fishery: A Distinction Between Open Access and Common Property." Alaska Fishery Research Bulletin, Vol. 5(1). 1998: 25-38 Saltonstad-Kennedy Grant Application McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 74 Page 49 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. Lewis, C. E., H.Geier, E. Arobio, C.A. Young, and J.A. Greenberg. "Cooperatives: An Alaska Experience. National Cooperatives Review. US Dept. of Agriculture. 1997. Herrmann, M., K.C. Criddle, J.A. Greenberg, and E.M. Feller. "Estimated Economic Impacts of Potential Policy Changes Affecting the Total Allowable Catch for Pollock." North America Journal of Fisheries Management. 1996: 770-782. Greenberg, J.A., M. Herrmann, and J. McCraken. "An International Supply and Demand Model for Alaska Snow Crab." Marine Resource Economics. Vol. 10. 1995:231-246. Greenberg, J.A., and M. Herrmann. "Allocative Consequences of Pot Limits in the Bristol Bay Red King Crab Fishery: An Economic Analysis." North American Journal of Fisheries Management. Vol. 14 (2). 1994: 307-317. Greenberg, J.A., and M. Herrmann. "Some Economic Impacts of Pot Limits in the Bristol Bay Red King Crab Fisheries." Proceedings of the International Symposium on Management Strategies for Exploited Fish Populations. " Alaska Sea Grant. 1994: 705-721. OTHER SELECTED PUBLICATIONS Greenberg, J.A., W. Bechtol, G. Kruse, J.A., H. Geier. "Economic Considerations in the Analysis of Minimum Size Limit for the Bering Sea Tanner Crab Fisheries." Appendix B in Analysis of the Minimum Size Limit for Eastern Bering Sea Tanner Crab Fisheries: A Preliminary Report to the Alaska Board of Fisheries. March, 2010. Lyons, C., and J.A. Greenberg. "Dollars and Sense: Measuring and Communicating the Efficacy of Marine Protected Areas." Conference for Sustainability IGERTs 2. Social -Ecological Transformations and Sustainability. Arizona State University. October 8-10, 2009. Herrmann, M., J.A. Greenberg, C. Hamel, and H. Geier. "Regional Economic Impact Assessment of the Alaska Snow Crab Fishery." Final Report to the Alaska Department of Fish and Game. University of Alaska Fairbanks. March, 2004. Saltons[all-Kennedy Grant Application McDowell Croup, Inc. • Page 75 Page 50 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion AGENDA ITEM #2.c. SPONSORED RESEARCH Bering Sea Fisherman's Research Fund. "Analysis of Minimum Size Limit for Eastern Bering Sea Tanner Crab Fisheries." August, 2009. Alaska Department of Fish and Game. "Modeling Price Formation for Alaska Crab: Focus on Crab Rationalization." July, 2004. NPRB, "An International Supply and Demand Econometric Model for King and Snow Crab." May, 2004. saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Application McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 16 Page 51 of 51 Saltonstall-Kennedy Grant Discussion KODIAK ISLAND BOROUGH WORK SESSION Work Session of: Please PRINT your name T� Please PRINT your name ,rfl vi �OuS�i pG CV� 0,:�?fS a�u�i� cS Sc6 V���� /oma c� J�Ac iA a ,