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2002-11-01 Economic Impacts From Fishing Restrictions on the Kodiak Island Borough EconomyOFFICE of TO: Assembly Members FROM: Lauri Whiddon, Administrative Assistapk\ DATE: December 3, 2002 �y SUBJECT: McDowell Report Attached for your consideration and review is the McDowell Group Report `Analysis of Economic Impacts from Fishing Restrictions on the Kodiak Island Borough Economy". If you would like a color copy of this document, please give me a call at 486-9301. DEC - 3 OF -f1C. KODIAK ISLAND BOROUGH OFFICE OF THE BOROUGH CLERK COPIED TO: / ;'I0:CLERK_FILE / ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM FISHING RESTRICTIONS ON THE KODIAK ISLAND BOROUGH ECONOMY McDowell G R O U P PREPARED FOR: KODIAK ISLAND BOROUGH Research -Based Consulting Juneau Anchorage NOVEMBER 2002 ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM FISHING RESTRICTIONS ON THE KODIAK ISLAND BOROUGH ECONOMY PREPARED FOR: KODIAK ISLAND BOROUGH PREPARED BY: McDowell 0 R 0 U P NOVEMBER 2002 TABLE OF CONTENTS ExecutiveSummary ........................................................................................................................1 TheKodiak Economy......................................................................................................................5 Kodiak Economic Model Output.....................................................................................................5 Kodiak's "Economic Engines"— The Basic Economy....................................................................5 Kodiak's Support Industries...........................................................................................................8 TheKodiak Seafood Industry .........................................................................................................9 SeafoodHarvesting.......................................................................................................................9 Recent Trends in Fisheries Important to Kodiak..........................................................................9 Trends for Kodiak Resident Fishermen.....................................................................................10 2000 Kodiak Seafood Harvesting Employment and Earnings Estimates....................................13 SeafoodProcessing.....................................................................................................................15 ProcessingEmployment...........................................................................................................19 Kodiak Raw Fish Tax Revenue....................................................................................................21 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Introduction The Gulf of Alaska and the Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands groundfish fishery is one of the largest volume and highest revenue producing fisheries in the world. With its strategic location and strong fishing tradition, Kodiak is a major center for the processing of groundfish. Kodiak consistently ranks among America's top three seafood ports in ex -vessel value. In 2001, the McDowell Group completed an assessment of potential impacts on the Kodiak economy from management alternatives proposed by the National Marine Fisheries Service. An economic model was developed for the Kodiak economy based on published employment data, as well as on McDowell Group estimates of the annual average employment and take-home pay of Kodiak -based skippers and crew. Currently, the National Marine Fisheries Service is continuing the Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (SEIS) process to assess effects of management alternatives for groundfish in the North Pacific. Kodiak's economy is facing other challenges as well, including low salmon prices and crab fishery rationalization. This document is an update of the 2001 report and model, and reflects changes in Kodiak's economy due to recent fishery abundance, market conditions, and management regimes. The effects of these changes on Kodiak are summarized below. Seafood Industry Trends Commercial Fishing Sector • The Gulf of Alaska (east of Yakutat) pollock and cod quota fell by over 40 percent between 1999 and 2002. • Approximately 30 thousand metric tons of the available quota were not harvested in 2000 and 2001 due to the closure of areas traditionally fished by the Kodiak fleet, for Stellar sealion protection. • The total salmon harvest in the Kodiak area, measured in pounds, increased by 20 percent while value declined by 66 percent between 1999 and 2002. • Ex -vessel value in Pacific Halibut Regulatory Areas 3A and 3B, where most Kodiak vessels fish, has ranged from $74 million to $81 million The 2001 harvest was valued at $74 million, down about 9 percent from the 2000 value. • Crab ex -vessel value in the Bering Sea opilio and Bristol Bay king crab fisheries, the most important crab fisheries to the Kodiak fleet, declined by 64 percent between 1999 and 2002. Fishermen saw the value of their crab harvest decline by $167 million. Economic Impacts from Fishing Restrictions on the Kodiak Economy McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 1 Seafood Processing Sector • The poundage of seafood processed in Kodiak has declined steadily since 1998, dropping from 390 million pounds in 1998 to 270 million pounds in 2001. The 2002 production is expected to be still lower. Groundfish volume landed at Kodiak declined by one-third between 1998 and 2001. • Pollock production fell from 166 million pounds to 91 million pounds, between 1998 and 2001, a 45 percent drop. Cod production peaked in 1999 at 85 million pounds, then declined to 55 million in 2001, down 35 percent. • Salmon landings in Kodiak increased in 2001 to 79 million pounds; however, salmon values dropped to $19 million (a 40 percent drop from the 1999 level of $31 million). • Halibut poundage landed at Kodiak declined by 14 percent between 1999 and 2001 as increasing numbers of fishermen landed their fish at Homer or Seward, where prices are higher. • Crab value landed in Kodiak increased from $2.8 million in 1999 to $4.9 million in 2002. • The ex -vessel value of all seafood processed in Kodiak dropped to a three-year low in 2001 to $81 million, down from $104 million in 1999. Cod values dropped by 38 percent, from about $25 million to $16 million. Trends in Kodiak's Economy In the McDowell Group's July 2001 report, it was estimated that a 30 percent decline of groundfish volume available to Kodiak processors would result in the closure of one processing plant, the loss of 500 processing jobs, and 200 support sector jobs. The study team also predicted that a portion of the current resident Kodiak processing labor force would move because they could not afford to live in Kodiak year-round due to reduced employment opportunities. These estimates now appear reasonable, and perhaps some were conservative, in light of recent trends in Kodiak. • Kodiak commercial fishermen's net income in 2001 of approximately $49 million was 20 percent below the 1999 level of $63 million. Total income for 2002 is likely to be still lower. • Processing sector payroll dropped by $9 million between 1999 and 2001. The loss of another $8 to $10 million in processing payroll is expected for 2002. • It is expected that total seafood industry payroll in Kodiak (including commercial fishing net income and processing payroll) in 2002 will be $25 to $30 million below the 1999 level. • Total seafood industry employment in Kodiak in 2001 averaged approximately 2,700 jobs (including commercial fishing and seafood processing). The 2002 average is expected to drop to about 2,300 jobs, nearly 20 percent below the 1999 average of 2,800 jobs. Almost all of this decline has been in the processing sector. • A total of four processors closed in 2001 and 2002, including Cook Inlet Processing (doing business as Polar Equipment), Global Seafoods, Kodiak Salmon Packers and Kodiak Seafood Processing. • These companies accounted for an annual average of almost 300 jobs - about one quarter of shore -based processing employment. Two of the four plants that Economic Impacts from Fishing Restrictions on the Kodiak Economy McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 2 closed — Global Seafoods and Cook Inlet Processing — were largely dependent on groundfish and had a combined annual average employment of 265. • Preliminary 2002 estimates of annual average employment with shore -based processors indicate a decline of almost 500 jobs from the 2000 peak. Shore -based processing employment dropped from 1,458 in 2000 to an estimated 985 in 2002. That represents a drop of about one-third. Most of this decline occurred between 2001 and 2002 (400 of the 500 jobs) • Even before the dramatic decline in processing employment in 2002, Kodiak's economy was showing signs of weakness. Based on McDowell Group estimates, total borough -wide payroll declined by 8 percent between 1999 and 2001, from $265 million to $243 million (this includes estimated net income for fishermen). Annual average employment declined by 150 jobs. • Kodiak's service sector has been affected by the decline in seafood industry activity and income. For example, retail employment in Kodiak dropped by 70 jobs between 1999 and 2001. • There are other indicators of a weakening Kodiak economy. For example, the average private sector wage in Kodiak declined 7 percent between 1999 and 2001. • Though it is too early to measure all the impacts on Kodiak's economy stemming from the decline in the local seafood industry, long-term structural changes are likely. For example, the loss of groundfish volume has led to increasingly seasonal employment and fewer hours of work available. This has and will continue to cause residents to leave the island to seek more stable employment. • Structural changes in Kodiak's economy, stemming from reduced groundfish _ harvesting and processing (as well as changes in other fisheries) include a broad range of socioeconomic implications. These include potential decline in school enrollment, loss of tax revenues that support local government services, reduced local investment in housing and businesses, and others. • The shift to more seasonal labor demand will increase costs to processors, who must recruit, house, feed, transport and train their labor force. This could result in additional plant closures. • Over the next several years, additional employment and income losses in Kodiak's support sector are expected, as households and businesses adjust to the decline in commercial fishing and processing. • Additional economic losses associated with fisheries management actions would further hamstring an economy that is already in recession. A summary of these and other trends is provided in the following table. Economic Impacts from Fishing Restrictions on the Kodiak Economy McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 3 Table 1. Recent Trends in the Kodiak's Fisheries and Economy Sector '(Total Catch and Value of Selected Fisheries Important to the Kodiak Fleet) Pollock/cod ex -vessel catch (millions of pounds) 1999 160 — 20026arvesting 84 ,. 48% Halibut ex -vessel value (millions of dollars) $76 $80 + 6 Salmon ex -vessel value (millions of dollars) $35 $12 - 66 Opilio king crab ex -vessel value (millions of dollars) $261 $94 64 Trawl permits fished 40 352 12 Salmon permits fished Sector0 Groundfish ex -vessel volume purchased (millions of pounds) 397 238 242 176 39 ,. - 35% Groundfish ex -vessel value (millions of dollars) $41 $33 15 Halibut ex -vessel volume purchased (millions of pounds) 9.9 8.5 - 14 Halibut ex -vessel value (millions of dollars) $21 $16 -24 Salmon ex -vessel volume purchased (millions of pounds) 71 79 +11 Salmon ex -vessel value (millions of dollars) $31 $19 -40 Crab ex -vessel volume purchased (millions of pounds) 1.4 1.4 0 Crab ex -vessel value (millions of dollars) $2.8 Kodiak Shore -based processing employment 1,314 $4.9 tt 9854 + 75 - 25% Change Non -government support sector employment 2,430 2,400 - 1 Seafood harvesting payroll (millions of dollars) $63 $49 - 22 Total (All Industries) payroll in Kodiak Island Borough (millions of dollars) $265 $243 -8 r. uata represents total catch and value in each fishery, including Kodiak and non -Kodiak resident harvests. 2. Trawl permits fished is for year 2001 and is based on preliminary data. 3. Represents 2002 processing employment estimate. „No«° nunr rrsrung rcesincnons on the Kodiak Economy McDowell Group, inc. • Page 4 THE KODIAK ECONOMY Kodiak Economic Model Output To describe the Kodiak economy, an export -base model is used (Table 2). The model reflects economic conditions as of 2001, though commercial fishing employment is based on 2000 data. The model shows the relationship between the basic and support sectors of the economy, and provides a baseline against which to gauge the broader impacts of changes in Kodiak fisheries upon the area's economy. Basic industry exports goods and services to markets outside the local area and brings in new money in exchange. Support industry serves the local population and business community, as residents trade existing dollars with their neighbors. Alaska Department of Labor (ADOL) published seafood processing employment data was inaccurate in 2001 due to over -counting of local employment and payroll with Trident Seafoods, according to ADOL. Therefore, employment estimates from 2000 were used from this employer. Discussions with Trident officials indicate that employment in 2000 and 2001 were similar. Kodiak's "Economic Engines" — The Basic Economy Kodiak's economic base industries include commercial fishing, seafood processing, and tourism, as well as agencies that manage base industries, such as the Alaska Department of Fish and Game and the National Marine Fisheries Service. The US Coast Guard is also a base industry. The remainder of the local economy consists of support industries that service the local population and business community. Kodiak's basic industries account for an annual average of about 4,250 jobs and a payroll of $146 million (Table 2 and Figure 1). This makes up 55 percent of Kodiak's total employment and 60 percent of total payroll. In terms of employment, the most important basic industries in Kodiak are the seafood industry, the Coast Guard, tourism, heavy construction, and lumber and wood products. The seafood industry is the largest industry in Kodiak. Annual average employment for Kodiak commercial fishermen was an estimated 946 jobs in 2000, about the same as 1999. Estimated employment in the processing industry declined by almost 500 jobs from 2000 to 2002. Three processors — Global Seafoods, Alaska Salmon Packers and Cook Inlet Processing - closed in the last year. Basic industry government employment was about the same in 2001 as in 1999 at about 140 jobs. Altogether, the seafood industry accounted for over 2,700 jobs, contributing approximately 64 percent of Kodiak's economic base employment, 35 percent of total employment and 39 percent of total payroll. A similar share (over 60 percent) of Kodiak's support industries (trade, services, etc.) are attributed to the dominant seafood industry. Economic Impacts from Fishing Restrictions on the Kodiak Economy McDowell Group, Inc. • rage 0 Table 2. Kodiak Base and Support Industries, Employment and Payroll, 20011 Sector AnnualAve. % of Total Total Payroll % of Total .. ployment ($M;Ifions)) Payroll BASIC INDUSTRY Seafood Seafood Harvesting2 946 Processing' 1,622 Alaska Dept. of Fish and Game 78 National Marine Fisheries Service 29 Kodiak National Wildlife Refuge Fishery Industrial Technology Center 20 <1% $0.8 <1% Total Seafood 2,712 35% $95.0 39% Alaska Aerospace De- Corp. 6 <1% Tourism4 242 3% ° National Interest Coast Guard' 1,100 Agriculture, Forestry and Manufacturing Agricultural services 18 <1% $0.2 <t% Forestry 4 <1% $0.2 <1% Fishing, hunting & trapping 40 <1% $2 9 1% Lumber & wood products 43 1% $1.7 1% Apparel & other textile products° 8 <1% $0.1 <1% Heavy Construction 82 1% $5.5 2% Total Basic Industry 4,255 55% $145.0 60% SUPPORTINDUSTRY OtherConstruction 85 1% $2.9 1% Transportation, Comm., Util. (TCU) 228 3% $7.6 3% Wholesale and Retail Trade 818 10% $15 9 7% Finance, Ins. and Real Estate (FIRE) 169 2% $5.8 2% Manufacturing-printing4 25 <1% $0.2 <1% Services 1,076 14% $28.8 12% Federal Governments 162 2% $8.0 3% State Government' 136 2% $5.4 2% Local Government 781 10% $22.4 9% Total Support Industry 3,480 45% $96.9 400'° TOTAL ALL INDUSTRIES so c 7,735 100% $242.0 100% urce. ompded by McDowell Group, Inc., based on Alaska Department of Labor & Workforce Development data except where noted. 1 Data for federal and state government, including Kodiak National Wildlife Refuge, National Marine Fisheries Service, and Alaska Departmen of Fish and Game, are for 2000. 2 Seafood harvesting employment and income are McDowell Group, Inc. estimates, based on CFEC permit data and are for 2000. 3 Processing employment from Department of Labor includes both catcher -processor vessels based in Kodiak and shore based processing Employment and payroll figures from the published ADOL data were adjusted down to account for inaccuracies in Trident Seafom employment figures. 4 McDowell Group, Inc. estimates. 5 Information from Kodiak Island Borough Website. 6 Federal government employment, less National Marine Fisheries Service and Kodiak National Wildlife Refuge positions. 7 State government employment, less ADFG, FITC, and AADC positions. onNacis uum rtsnmg nesincuons on me Kodiak Economy McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 6 The Coast Guard is Kodiak's second largest basic industry, accounting for about 26 percent of the basic economy employment. Tourism, timber industry, hatcheries, heavy construction and manufacturing make up the balance of Kodiak's basic industry. Figure 1 Kodiak's Basic Industry Composition, 2001 of annual Heavy Construction (20/6) Coast Guard (2f Manufacturing (3%) Tourism (60, Seafood Management (3%) i Processing (380/) Seafood: 64% seat000 rmrvesnng t22%) Source. McDowell Group and Alaska Department of labor Seafood Management employment includes Alaska Dept of Fish and Game, National Marine Fisheries Service, Kodiak National Wildlife Refuge, Fisheries Industrial Technology Center, and the Kodiak Fisheries Research Center Campus. Alaska Aerospace jobs are not depicted in this chart, as they account for less than 1 percent of basic employment. Impacts from Fishing Restrictions on the Kodiak Economy McDowell Group, Inc. • Page Kodiak's Support Industries Support businesses do not create new wealth for the community. However, money brought to the economy by basic industries, such as fishing income, impacts the local economy in many ways as it cycles through support businesses. Local support businesses are important in that they keep money in the local economy. Kodiak support industries account for an annual average of almost 3,500 jobs and $97 million in payroll (Table 2 and Figure 2). Support industries provide 45 percent of total employment and 40 percent of total earnings. Support industries linked directly to fisheries include a wide array of businesses, including boat yards, fuel sales, engine mechanics, electricians, freight forwarding, hydraulic service, air taxi, accounting, banking and shipwrights. An estimated 60 percent of Kodiak's support industries are the result of the seafood industry. In order of employment, the most important support industries in Kodiak are services; government; trade; transportation, communication and utilities (TCU); finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE); construction; and support manufacturing such as printing. Figure 2 Kodiak's Support Industry Composition, 2001 (Percent of annual average support industry employment) Construction (20/6) Trade (24%) FIRE (5% wernment (22%) State Government (4%) Federal Government (50/6) Source: McDowell Group and Alaska Department of Labor FIRE: Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate TCU: Transportation, Communications, Utilities Manufacturing jobs are not depicted in this chart, as they account for less than 1 percent of basic employment. Economic Impacts from Fishing Restrictions on the Kodiak Economy McDowell Group, Inc. • Page THE KODIAK SEAFOOD INDUSTRY Seafood Harvesting Recent Trends in Fisheries Important to Kodiak The most important fisheries in terms of ex -vessel value to the Kodiak fleet in recent years are groundfish, halibut, salmon and crab. Most of the Kodiak groundfish fleet fish for cod and pollock in the Gulf of Alaska (excluding West Yakutat and Southeast areas). In 2000 and 2001, about 30 thousand metric tons of fish of the available quota were not harvested due primarily to Stellar sealion conservation programs, which closed areas traditionally fished by the Kodiak fleet. The estimated 2002 harvest was about 5,000 tons shy of the quota as of November 2002 (Table 3). Table 3 Pollock and Cod Quota and Harvest Central and Western Gulf of Alaska, 1999-2002 Thousands of Round Metric Tons Source: National Marine Fisheries service. 2002 data is catch through November 2002. Halibut is the second most valuable fishery to the Kodiak fleet, and one of the most consistent in recent years. Halibut prices have generally exceeded $2 per pound since 1999. Most Kodiak vessels fish in Pacific Halibut Regulatory Areas 3A and 313, where the estimated ex -vessel value averaged about $78 million from 1999 to 2002 (Table 4). Table 4 Commercial Halibut Harvest in Areas 3A and 3B, 1999-2002 Millions of Pounds and Dollars source: National Marine Fisheries service and Alaska Department of Fish and Game. 2002 catch represents the annual quota. Economic Impacts from Fishing Restrictions on the Kodiak Economy McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 9 The Kodiak salmon fishery represents the third most valuable fishery to the Kodiak fleet. From 1999 to 2002, the commercial salmon harvest ranged from 62 to 94 million pounds. The salmon fishery value, however, plummeted to a preliminary total of just $12 million in 2002 due to low prices for pink and sockeye salmon, the primary species harvested by the Kodiak fleet (Table 5). Preliminary information indicates that the number of permits fished in the Kodiak region declined from 354 in 2001 to 242 in 2002, a decline of 32 percent. Table 5 Kodiak Area Commercial Salmon Harvest, 1999-2002 Millions of Pounds and Dollars Year Ex -vessel Catch Ex -vessel Value L'�11�111'IR���Ts� ■ Kodiak's commercial crab fleet derives most of its income from the Bristol Bay king crab and Bering Sea opilio fisheries. Catch in these two fisheries ranged from 205 million pounds in 1999 to 34 million pounds in 2001 and 2002. Value ranged from $261 million in 1999 to $81 million in 2001 (Table 6). Most of the decline was due to the Bering Sea opilio fishery, which declined from 194 million pounds worth $190 million in 1999 to just 25 million pounds worth about $40 million in both 2001 and 2002. Table 6 Commercial Crab Harvest in the Bering Sea Opilio and Bristol Bay King Crab Fisheries, 1999-2002 Millions of Pounds and Dollars 1999 1 194 11 $261 2000 34 8 101 2001 25 9 81 2002 25 9 94 Source: Alaska Department of Fish and Game Trends for Kodiak Resident Fishermen Permit and earnings data by community of residence were available through 2000 from CFEC. In 2000, 594 Kodiak Island Borough residents participated in commercial fishing as permit holders, fishing a total of 1,063 permits (Table 7). This was an increase of both permit holders and permits fished from 1999. Additionally, 1,178 crew member licenses were sold to Kodiak residents in 2000, a decline of 13 licenses from 1999. Permit holders who work as crew are not included in this crew total. Economic Impacts from Fishing Restrictions on the Kodiak Economy McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 10 Nearly one in five of Kodiak's 9,400 adult residents participated in commercial fish harvesting as a permit holder or crew member during 2000, a total of 1,770 individuals. Table 7 Kodiak Resident Harvest and Earnings, 1995-2000 Permit Holders Permits Landings Gross Earnings Gross Earnings Year Fishing Fished (Millions of Pounds) (Millions of Dollars) Per Permit Holder source: Alaska Commercial Fisheries Entry Commission During 2000, Kodiak permit holders landed 220 million pounds of seafood, a 16 percent decline from 1999. Earnings were $90 million, a decline of 21 percent from 1999. Most of the overall decline from 1999 was due to a $21 million decline in the value of crab and $8 million decline in the value of salmon (Table 8). Ranked by Kodiak resident permit holders' income, groundfish fisheries accounted for the highest value in 2000 ($28 million), followed by halibut ($27 million), salmon ($16 million), crab ($12 million), sablefish ($4 million), herring ($2 million), and all other fisheries combined ($1 million, Table 8). Table 8 Kodiak Resident Earnings by Fishery, 1995-2000 Millions of Dollars $24 $17 $19 $22 $33 000 $12 39 33 36 19 29 28 5 5 5 4 3 4 r 12 14 21 12 22 27 6 7 2 2 2 2 33 18 14 22 24 16 1 2 1 1 1 1 Total j $119 $98 $98 $82 $115 $90 Source: Alaska Commercial Fisheries Entry Commission The top five gear types and fisheries for Kodiak resident harvesters were groundfish otter trawl ($16 million), large vessel halibut longline ($15 million), small boat halibut longline ($12 million), salmon purse seining ($9 million) and tanner crab pot gear ($8 million). The highest level of participation in terms of permits fished were in the groundfish fisheries (311 permits), followed by salmon (292), and halibut (261)(Table 9). Economic Impacts from Fishing Restrictions on the Kodiak Economy McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 11 Table 9 Kodiak Resident Commercial Fishing Permits Landings and Earnings. 20001 Permit ..- Fishery Dungeness Crab>60'vessel Permts Fished 6 . � PoundsI Data Farnings EarningsD09J 1 73,000 1 $121,000 1 $20,000 1 Actual D 91J Dungeness Crab < 60' vessel 5 91.000' Ilao0o $32,000 Fishery Avg. K 91T Bristol Bay King Crab, > 60'vessel 34 889,000 $4,294,000 $126,000 Actual K 09T King Crab, Pot Gear, < 60' vessel 1 11,000 5 0 $51.000 Fishery Avg. K 91 K King Crab, Pot Gear, > 60' vessel 1 Data not available due to State confidentiality standards T 91Q Tanner Crab > 60' Vessel, Bering S. 35 4,043,0001 $7,557,000 1 $216,000 1 Actual T 91 QD I King Crab Bering S. CDO 1 Data not available due to State confidentiality standards Total Crab 83 5,229,00C $12,390,000 $149,000 Actual C 068 Sablefish Longline < 60' (NOT SE OR PWS) 22 1,153,000 $2,423,000 $110,000 Actual C61B Sablefish Longline > 60'vessel statewide 20 898,000 $1,973,000 $99,000 Actual Total Sablefish 42 2,051,000 $4,396,000 $209,000 Actual 126E Ling Cod Mechanical Jig 1 2 600 $1.70 $1,700 Fishery Avg.- * 05B Misc. Finfish Hand Troll 9 61,000 $25,000 $2,700 Actual M 068 Misc. Finfish Longline, < 60' 50 3,826,000 $1,502,000 $30,000 Actual M 07B Misc. Finfish Otter Trawl 33 119,665,000 $16,284,000 $493,000 Actual M 09B Misc. Finfish Pot Gear, < 60' vessel 56 9,780,000 $3,467,000 $62,000 Actual M 26B Misc. Finfish Mechanical Jig 98 1,613,000 $640.000 $6,500 Actual M61B Misc. Finfish Longline, >60' 8 1,357,000 $541,000 $68,000 Actual M 91B Misc. Finfish Pot Gear, >60' 56 14,722,000 $5,054,000 $90,000 Actual Total Groundfish 311 151,026,000 $27,514.000 $88,000 Actual B 26B Halibut Mechanical Jig 16 33,000 74,000 $4,600 Actual B O6B Halibut Longline Vessel < 60' 154 4,917,000 $12,136,000 $79,000 Actual B 61 B Halibut Longline > 60' 91 5,887,000 $14,512,000 $159,000 Actual Total Halibut 261 10,837,000 $26,722,000 $102,000 Actual G 01A Roe Herring Purse Seine 1 187,000 $54.000 $54,000 Fishery Avg. G 01 K Roe Herring, Purse Seine, Kodiak 13 1,677,000 $582,000 $45.000 Fishery Avg. G 01T Roe Herring, Purse Seine, Bristol By. 18 4,383,000 $412,000 $23,000 Actual G 34K Roe Herring, Gill Net, Kodiak 6 108,000 $3LM $5.100 Fishery Avg. G 34T Roe Herring, Gill Net, Bristol Bay 1 5.800 $900 Fishery Avg. H 01 M Herring Food/Bait Purse Seine, Peninsula/Aleutians 3 604,000 $121,000 $40,000 Fishery Avg. Total Herring 43 9,643,000 ;1,517,000 ;35,000 Actual t r ame > commuea next page) Source: Alaska Commercial Fisheries Entry Commission 1. Some data was confidential. For these gear groups, fishery average harvest and earnings were used. These estimates are denoted as underlined. Totals may not reflect sums of column items because although data for some fisheries was confidential, the totals by species groupings were available except for groundfish, where the sum of CFEC and Fishery averages was used. t:conomic impacts trom t-Ishing Restrictions on the Kodiak Economy McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 12 Table 9 (continued) Kodiak Resident Commercial Fishing Permits Landings and Earnings, 20001 Permit Code S 01A Salmon Purse Seine Southeast Permits 3 Pounds Gross Avg. Gross Data 1,211,000 1 $108,000 1 Fishery Avg. S 01K Salmon Purse Seine Kodiak 131 28,871,000 $9,391.000 $72,000 Actual S 01 L Salmon Purse Seine Chignik 11 1 86.4 000 $1.403. 00 1128 000 Fishery Avg. S 02K Salmon Beach Seine, Kodiak 2 Data not available due to State confidentiality standards S 03E Salmon Drift Gillnet, PWS 4 99,000 $109,000 $27,000 Actual S 03H Salmon Drift Gillnet, Cook Inlet 6 83,000 $54,000 $9,000 Actual S 03M Salmon Drift Gillnet, Peninsula/Aleutians 4 374,000 $311,000 $78,000 Actual S 03T Salmon Drift Gillnet, Bristol Bay 25 1,421,000 $940,000 $38,000 Actual S 04K Salmon Set Gillnet, Kodiak 94 6,908,000 $3,595,000 $38,000 Actual S 04T Salmon Set Gillnet, Bristol Bay 11 275,000 1 $181,000 $16,000 Actual S 04W Salmon Gillnet, Kuskokwim 1 6.0001 $2,000 $2,000 Fishery Avg. Total Salmon - - 292 - 41,056,000 $16,112,000 $55,000 Actual O 09B Octopus/Squ t Pot < 60' Vessel 17 85,0001 $31,000 $2,000 Actual O 91 B Octopus/Squid Pot > 60' Vessel 3 4 200 $1.600 500 Fishery Avg. Q 11 B Sea Cucumber Diving 7 40,0001 $57,000 1 $8,000 Actual U 11 B Sea Urchin Diving 3 Data not available due to State confidentiality standards 22B Scallop Dredge 1 0 0 71.000 9;281.000 Fishery Avg. Total Other Shellflah TOTAL•r 31 1.3 38t3, $1,050,000 534,000 Actual 220t11 trr $90,000,000 $85,000 Source: Alaska Commercial Fisheries Entry Commission. 1. Some data was confidential. For these gears, fishery average harvest and earnings were used. These estimates are denoted as underlined italics. Totals may not reflect sums of column items because although data for some fisheries was confidential, the totals by spedes groupings were available except for groundfish, where the sum of CFEC and fishery averages was used. 2000 Kodiak Seafood Harvesting Employment and Earnings Estimates McDowell Group updated the 1999 employment and payroll estimates with 2000 data from CFEC. This is the most recent year of complete data, according to CFEC. These estimates of annual average employment and take-home pay of Kodiak -based skippers and crew are essential because most government reports do not include employment or personal income from seafood harvesting, Kodiak's most important industry. The source for all other employment data, the Alaska Department of Labor, expresses employment in annual average 12-month equivalents. Harvesting employment estimates use this method to be comparable. Following the methods used in McDowell Group's 1989 Alaska Seafood Industry Study, the study team considered the preparation and fishing time and assigned months of participation to each fishery. Typical crew sizes were assumed for various size vessels. Net earnings as a percent of gross fishery earnings were estimated. The effects of the same vessels and crews being used for different fisheries were considered. Finally, the assumption was made that Kodiak vessels were crewed primarily by Kodiak residents. The result was about 946 seafood harvesting jobs and Economic Impacts from Fishing Restrictions on the Kodiak Economy McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 13 $49 million in skipper and crew personal income, comparable to 12-month land - based salaries and wages (Table 10). Groundfish and salmon fisheries are the leading employers, with groundfish providing 364 annual average jobs and salmon providing 318 jobs. IFQ holders fishing for halibut provide another 158 jobs, with sablefish, crab, herring and other species combining for about 106 jobs. Table 10 Kodiak Seafood Harvesting By Fishery Employment and Earnings Estimates, 2000 Fishery Crab Permits Fished 83 AverageGros, Annual Jobs 32 Earnings D. $12 Estimated Payroll Dollars) $7 Groundfish 311 364 28 14 Sablefish 42 28 4 2 Halibut 261 158 27 17 Herring 43 34 1 0.6 Salmon 292 318 16 8 Other 31 12 0.4 0.2 Total 1,063 946 $90 $49 Source: Permits fished and gross earnings, Commercial Fisheries Entry Commission. Annual employment and estimated payroll are estimates by McDowell Group, Inc., based on standard crew sizes, months of participation in each fishery, and study team estimates of net "take-home pay" by skippers and crew. Sum of column values may not add due to rounding. Economic Impacts from Fishing Restrictions on the Kodiak Economy McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 14 Seafood Processing Kodiak is a major seafood port, consistently ranking among America's top three seafood ports in terms of ex -vessel value. Kodiak processors processed an average of over 300 million pounds of seafood worth an average ex -vessel value of $88 million a year between 1997 and 2001 (Tables 11 and 12). Total groundfish volume has declined over the past 4 years due to declining harvests. Table 11 Ex -Vessel Landings of Seafood at Kodiak, 1997-2001 (Millions of Pounds) Speciesttr Crab 2001 Bering Sea Snow Crab 0.1 0.4 0.3 1.5 0.4 0.5 Dungeness Crab 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.4 Bristol Bay King Crab 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.6 Total Crab 1.1 1.2 1.4 2.7 1A 1.5 Groundflsh Pollock 83.3 165.8 1 130.5 1 102.2 90.81 114.5 Pacific Cod 73.1 72.0 85.0 64.9 54.7 69.9 Flatfish 19.8 13.7 8.3 14.8 15.1 14.3 Pacific Ocean Perch 4.8 5.4 5.6 9.0 9.0 6.8 Rockfish 3.0 6.3 8.1 9.2 6.5 6.6 Black Rockfish 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 Total Groundflsh 184.2 263.4 237.6 200.4 176.3 212.3 Sablefish 3.9 1 3.6 1 3.2 3.4 2.2 3.3 Salmon 57.8 105.6 70.5 61.8 78.8 74.9 Halibut 11.0 9.1 9.9 9.3 8.5 9.6 Other Species Herring 8.0 4.9 3.3 2.7 3.1 4.4 Scallops 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 NA 0.4 Sea Cucumbers 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 Octopus 1 0.2 1 0.3 0.3 0.2 NA 0.3 Total Other Species 1 8.7 1 5.7 4.1 3.31 3.3 5.0 TOTAL ALL SPECIES 1 267.01 388.6 326.7 281.0 1 270.5 306.7 (Note: Totals may not reflect exact summation of columns due to rounding) Source: Alaska Department of Fish and Game and Kodiak Island Borough Economic Impacts from Fishing Restrictions on the Kodiak Economy McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 15 Pollock and Pacific cod alone account for about 60 percent of volume and 34 percent of value of seafood processed in Kodiak. The 2001 season marked the third annual decline in groundfish landings to Kodiak processors. Halibut landings to Kodiak processors have also steadily declined as increasing numbers of fishermen land their fish at Homer or Seward, where prices are higher. Salmon value has declined every year since 1998, and preliminary 2002 data indicates a fourth consecutive year of decline. Crab value landed in Kodiak increased annually from 1998 to 2001. Table 12 Ex -Vessel Value of Seafood Landings at Kodiak, 1997-2001 (Millions of Dollars) Species Crab 1997 1998 1999 000 2001 Bering Sea Opilio Crab $0.5 $0.1 $0.2 $1.3 $0.6 $0.5 Dungeness Crab 1.3 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.7 Bristol Bay King Crab 1.3 1.2 1.7 1.7 3.9 2.0 Total Crab 3.1 2.0 2.8 3.4 4.9 3.2 Groundfish Pollock 8.1 11.6 13.1 8.7 12.7 10.8 Pacific Cod 15.5 13.7 25.5 24.0 15.9 18.9 Flatfish 3.5 2.2 1.3 2.7 2.9 2.5 Pacific Ocean Perch 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.4 Rockfish 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 Black Rockfish 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total Groundfish 27.8 28.6 41.2 36.8 32.5 33.4 Sablefish 8.0 5.2 5.7 7.0 6.9 6.6 Salmon 18.8 29.8 31.1 21.5 18.8 24.0 Halibut 21.0 10.0 20.6 23.1 16.2 18.2 Other Species Herring 1.3 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 Scallops 2.6 1 2.6 1.7 1.7 NA 2.2 Sea Cucumbers 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 Octopus 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 NA 0.1 Total Other Species 4.2 3.7 2.7 2.7 1.2 2.9 TOTAL ALL SPECIES $82.9 $79.3 $103.9 $94.5 $80.51 $88.3 Source: Alaska Department of Fish and Came and Kodiak Island Borough Economic Impacts from Fishing Restrictions on the Kodiak Economy McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 16 Groundfish is the mainstay of Kodiak's processing industry, averaging 69 percent of volume and 38 percent of value from 1997 to 2001 (Tables 13 and 14). Salmon is second in both volume (24 percent) and value (27 percent). Halibut accounts for 3 percent of volume and 20 percent of value, with sablefish accounting for 1 percent of volume and 8 percent of value. Table 13 Seafood Landings at Kodiak, 1997-2001 Percent of Ex -Vessel Volume by Species Groundfish 1997 69% 1998 68% 1999 73% 2000Species 71% 2001 65% Average 69% Salmon 22 27 22 22 29 24 Halibut 4 2 3 3 3 3 Herring 3 1 1 1 1 1 Sablefish 1 1 1 1 1 1 Crab <t <1 <1 1 1 1 Other <1 I <1 <1 J <1 I <1 <1 Total 100% 1 100% J 100% 1 100% 1 100% 100% source: Alaska Department of Fish and Game and Kodiak Island Borough Even as the volume of groundfish processed in Kodiak has declined in recent years, the general decline in salmon value from 1997 to 2001 has increased the importance of groundfish as a percentage of total value processed. Table 14 Seafood Landings at Kodiak, 1997-2001 Percent of Ex -Vessel Value by Species Groundfish 1997 34% 1998 36% 1999 40% 2000Species 39% 2001 40% Average 38% Salmon 23 38 30 23 23 27 Halibut 25 13 20 24 20 20 Herring 2 1 1 1 1 1 Sablefish 10 7 5 7 9 8 Crab 4 3 3 4 6 4 Other 3 4 2 2 <1 2 Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% source: Alaska Departrnent of Fish and Game and Kodiak Island Borough Economic Impacts from Fishing Restrictions on the Kodiak Economy McDowell Group, Inc. Page 17 Kodiak's processors rely heavily on groundfish as their largest volume of fish processed. Six processors (4 large and 2 small) who represent most of the processing capacity in Kodiak were interviewed for their relative volume of fish processed. All processors except one depend on groundfish for at least two-thirds of their volume (Table 15). Table 15 Volume of Seafood Processed by Kodiak Processors, 2001 (% of Total Annual Volume) Processor 1 Groundfish 65% Crab 1% Halibut 3% Sablefish 1% Herring 15% Salmon 15% Total 100% 2 70% 1% 4% 2% 23% 100% 3 85% 1% 3% 1% 10% 100% 4 100% 100% 5 88% 12% 100% 6 45% 40% 15% 100% Source: McDowell Group, Inc. executive interviews with processor executives. Processors 1 through 4 are large processors (employment > 100), and processors 5 and 6 small processors (employment <50). Traditionally, Pacific cod and Pollock are processed throughout most of the year. Reduced groundfish quotas after 1999 lowered the percentage of groundfish volume processed in the summer months. Even more important is the loss of groundfish processed from November through January, months when virtually no other species are processed in any substantial volume (Figure 3). Although groundfish may be lower in value per pound than other species, the large volume processed and the operation of the fishery in months when other species are not harvested are key to attracting and maintaining a local workforce in Kodiak Salmon and herring are processed during May through September. Halibut and sablefish are processed March through November, and rockfish processing peaks in July and August. Economic Impacts from Fishing Restrictions on the Kodiak Economy McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 18 Figure 3 Volume of Seafood Processed in Kodiak, by Month, 1999 and 2001 ■■wMEN ■i= 101I■■■ . E�7�1■■■ 11000 �1lll■E" 11 1 1 IEEE Source: Alaska Department of Fish and Game Processing Employment Unlike other areas of the state (Bristol Bay, for example) where processing plants operate seasonally and must import most of their workforce from outside Alaska, Kodiak's year-round processing operations traditionally provide adequate employment and wages to enable most of the processing labor force to live in Kodiak year-round. This, however, may be changing. A total of 14 shore -based processors operated in the Kodiak Island Borough in 2001. In 2002, three of the 10 largest processors --Global Seafoods, Cook Inlet Processing, and Kodiak Salmon Packers — closed their plants, as did Kodiak Seafood Processing. Department of Labor (DOL) Statistics show that processing employment increased from 1999 to 2000 and declined in 2001. To assess the impacts of the recent plant closures, the study team examined DOL employment data for the first half (January — June) of 2000, 2001 and 2002, and made estimates of employment for 2002 based on known plant closures (Table 16). Estimated employment for Kodiak shore -based processors will likely dip below 1,000 jobs in 2002. Interviews with processors indicate that most of their workforce is still based in Kodiak. However, as mentioned earlier, more off -island labor is being used during Impacts from Fishing Restrictions on the Kodiak Economy McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 19 peak processing periods because resident processing workers are leaving Kodiak due to lack of work from lower groundfish volume. Table 16 Annual Average Employment by Kodiak Shore -based Processors, 1999 to 2001 Processor Ocean Beauty Seafoods 1999 337 err 338 2001 342 2002 206 Trident Seafoods Corporation 100 184 184 188 Cook Inlet Processing (Polar Equipment) 206 228 191 1 North Pacific Processors 218 198 222 182 True World Foods (formerly International Seafoods) 208 147 126 157 Global Seafoods Kodiak LLC 7 137 74 1 Western Alaska Fisheries 137 110 126 133 Alaska Fresh Seafood 36 41 38 40 Kodiak Salmon Packers 21 29 28 1 Kodiak Fishmeal Company 17 16 17 17 Wards Cove Packing Company 3 14 20 9 Island Seafoods 6 9 13 44 Kodiak Seafood Processing 15 4 3 1 Kodiak Smoking & Processing 3 3 6 6 Total 1,314 1,458 1,387 985 Source: Department of Labor and McDowell Group Estimates Economic Impacts from Fishing Restrictions on the Kodiak Economy McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 20 Kodiak Raw Fish Tax Revenue Alaska's statewide landing and fisheries business taxes apply to seafood landed in each community and borough for processing. A portion of these proceeds is returned by the state to the community and the borough. The taxes received by the Kodiak Island Borough (KIB) in a given fiscal year reflect fisheries revenue from two years prior. For example, the 2002 taxes received by the KIB from the state reflect fisheries taxes collected by the state in 2000. Payments received in FY 2003 show a sharp decline from FY 2002 payments (Table 17). Payments for FY 2004 are expected to be even lower given the continued decline of groundfish and salmon value during the 2002 fishing season. Table 17 Shared Fisheries Tax Received by the Kodiak Island Borough, FY 1999 - 2002 Source: Dept. of Revenue annual reports on shared taxes. Economic Impacts from Fishing Restrictions on the Kodiak Economy McDowell Group, Inc. • Page 21